Tears of joy and tears of heartbreak; yes its Qualifying Season. The last event of the North American ‘QS’ year wrapped up in Barbados just last week, and now the Challenger Series season is about to come to a close at the Bioglan Newcastle Surfest in less than two days. That means we’ve got new qualifiers onto the ‘CS (for next year), and a whole slew of qualification implications for the ‘CT. Let’s have a look.
THE BREAKDOWN
The Challenger Series is 80 Men and 48 Women.
10 Men and 7 Women will graduate to the Championship Tour from the Challenger Series.
From my understanding – the next 10 highest ranked Men (I’m not sure how many Women) automatically re-qualify for the Challenger Series, although as you will see, this math doesn’t exactly check out. The rest of the Challenger Series Roster is composed of new qualifiers from the regional Qualifying Series’.
From North America, 7 Men and 4 Women graduate from the Qualifying Series.
This year, those 7 Men are:
- Taj Lindblad
- Lucca Messinas*
- Dimitri Poulos*
- Hayden Rodgers
- Josh Burke
- Lucas Owston
- Luke Guinaldo
The 4 Women are:
- Eden Walla*
- Ella McCaffray
- Bailey Turner
- Leilani McGonagle
*Dimitri, Lucca and Eden are all ranked relatively high on the Challenger Series for this year. Meaning, they may double qualify. If that is the case, the next ranked Men are – Owen Moss & John Mel. The next ranked Woman is – Sanoa Dempfle-Olin.
From Australia, the Men:
- Reef Heazlewood
- Lennix Smith
- Caleb Tancred
- Harley Walters
- Dane Henry
- Alister Reginato
- Xavier Huxtable*
And the Women:
- Lucy Darragh
- Isla Huppatz
- Charli Hately
- Ziggy Aloha Mackenzie
*Xavier is ranked pretty high on the Challenger Series right now. So high, in fact, we should be talking about him in the next section.
South America gets 8 Men onto the CS:
- Weslley Dantas
- Daniel Templar
- Caio Costa
- Gabriel Klaussner
- Ryan Kainalo
- Alonso Correa
- Douglas Silva
- Mateus Herdy*
And for the Women:
- Silvana Lima
- Laura Raupp*
- Taina Hinckel
- Daniella Rosas
*Mateus and Laura Raupp are both in ‘CT qualification situations. They are definitely double qualifying. The replacement for Men is – Vitor Ferreira. Replacement for Women is – Catalina Zariquiey.
Africa gets 4 Men and 2 Women.
The Men:
- Luke Thompson*
- Connor Slijpen
- Adin Masencamp
- Karl Steen
The Women:
- Sarah Baum
- Jessie Van Niekerk
*Luke Thompson may qualify for the Championship Tour. His replacement would be Joshe Faulkner.
Asia qualifies 5 Men and 3 Women.
The Men:
- Bronson Meydi
- Kei Kobayashi
- Dylan Wilcoxen
- Ketut Agus
- Riaru Ito
The Women:
- Kana Nakashio
- Anon Matsuoka
- Minami Nonaka
Europe gets 7 Men and 5 Women.
Men:
- Guilherme Ribeiro
- Tiago Carrique
- Ido Hagag
- Renan Grainville
- Sam Piter
- Hans Odriozola
- Sean Gunning
Women:
- Anat Leilor
- Annette Gonzalez Etxabarri
- Janire Gonzalez Etxabarri
- Maria Salgado
- Sarah Leiceaga
Hawaii qualifies 10 Men and 6 Women.
Men:
- Finn McGill
- Barron Mamiya*
- Eli Hanneman*
- Mihimana Braye
- Josh Moniz
- Luke Tema
- Shion Crawford
- Kauli Vaast*
- Oliver Zietz
- Rylan Beavers
Women:
- Moana Jones Wong
- Kiara Goold
- Aelan Vaast
- Vaihitimahana Inso
- Carissa Moore*
- Eweleiula Wong
*Barron Mamiya is already on Tour, and Eli Hanneman is qualified for next years Tour via the Challenger Series. Their replacements are lined up to be Ian Gentil and Zeke Lau. Carissa Moore is also slated to be on Tour next year – I believe via a wildcard. Her replacement will be Zoie Ziets.
There is still a bit to shake out before those qualifiers will be official. For example, Dane Henry will qualify for the Challenger Series via his ranking in the Australia/Oceana region. Dane also won the Pro Junior Championship, giving him the option to take his seed via the QS, or via the Pro Junior Title. Likely, he will take whichever route gives him the highest seed. If he chose the PJ route, this would give an extra slot to a QS surfer. If he takes his QS slot, does the runner up in the Pro Juniors get to take that slot? It would be Nadav Attar if that is the case – only time will tell.
That time is coming soon. The official countdown is on for the last CS event of the year. As previously mentioned, 10 Men and 7 Women will qualify for the Tour. 1 Man, and 4 Women have already locked up their position.
ALREADY CLINCHED
Eli Hanneman – 26,215
Yolanda Hopkins – 33,375
Tya Zebrowski – 33,375
Sally Fitzgibbons – 26,410
Francisca Veselko – 24,510
That leaves 9 slots for the Men, and 3 slots for the Women. Here’s what we are looking at.
REALLY CLOSE
Kauli Vaast – 22,520
George Pittar – 22,320
Sammy Pupo – 21,860
Luke Thompson – 21,465
Morgan Ciblic – 19,885
Nadia Erostarbe – 21,665
ALMOST THERE
Oscar Berry – 20,710
Mateus Herdy – 19,460
Jacob Wilcox – 18,840
Alyssa Spencer – 19,250
Annette Gonzalez Etxabarri – 18,385
Anat Lelior – 17,690
BORDERLINE
Liam O’Brien – 19,450
Callum Robson – 17,620
CHANCE AT IT
Jorgann Couzinet – 14,930
Levi Slawson – 14,700
Laura Raupp – 17,745
India Robinson – 16,620
Amuro Tsuzuki – 16,610
Sophie McCulloch – 16,410
Teresa Bonvalot – 16,325
Kirra Pinkerton – 16,210
NEED SOME HELP
Winter Vincent – 14,990
Dimitri Poulos – 14,790
NEED A MIRACLE
Jordan Lawler – 13,905
Xavier Huxtable – 13,810
Kade Matson – 12,685
Taro Watanabe – 12,265
I am making rough estimates, but I believe everyone else is out. Two (of seven) of their worst results will be dropped, which makes it tricky to calculate. The WSL posted these clinching scenarios to their Instagram:
Kauli Vaast qualifies with 17th or better (good shot with 25th).
George Pittar qualifies with 9th place or better.
Sammy Pupo, Luke Thompson, and Morgan Ciblic qualify with a 5th or better.
Oscar Berry, Mateus Herdy and Jacob Wilcox qualify with a 3rd place or better.
Liam O’Brien and Callum Robson qualify with a 2nd or better.
Jorgann Couzinet and Levi Slawson qualify by winning the event.
Nadia Erostarbe qualifies with 5th or better.
Annette Gonzalez Etxabarri, Alyssa Spencer, and Anat Lelior qualify with 2nd place or better.
Must Win: Laura Raupp, India Robinson, Amuro Tsuzuki, Sophie McCulloch, Teresa Bonvalot, Kirra Pinkerton.
So that’s the official word. I can’t get to the forecast because surfline is absolutely terrible nowadays, so I’ve got no way to call it. Truly that is me just being lazy. I told you all at least a year ago now that I was to learn how to read a real forecast. That I wanted to protest surfline, be a real nomad and learn how to read the charts. Well, as you can tell, I am still protesting surfline, but I did not yet learn to read the charts. Someday.
To give you some kind of prediction – well, it’s set up for you in the words above. I’m going chalk. For you non-wagering folks, that means I’ll be taking all of the favorites. The people that are expected to win and get in. Kauli is a shoe-in. Pittar is close. Ciblic is in form. Those 3 forsure. Nadia, of course. And the one risky name I’ll throw at you is Alyssa Spencer. Experience counts.
I’ll be doing my best to keep you updated as this event rolls along, but it may be another late recap piece (sigh). We’ll see what happens. Until then, keep your jersey on.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield