It’s been 2 days since the official end of the 2023 competitive surf season and I’m ready to get into next year. That’s not completely true as there are still a lot of regional QS events left in this calendar year, but for the big show, we’re rolling into next season. It is a funny feeling because posts have been making their rounds on social media showing Hawaii’s North Shore just starting to wake up for the winter. As surf media prepares for its most boisterous time of the year, the WSL comes to a halt for 2, almost 3 full months. You can’t script this.
If you didn’t know, here are the 10 Men Qualifiers from the Challenger Series onto the Championship Tour, in order:
Cole Houshmand
Samuel Pupo
Jacob Willcox
Crosby Colapinto
Eli Hanneman
Imaikalani deVault
Frederico Morais
Jake Marshall
Kade Matson
Deivid Silva
Five of these names have graced the Tour in at least one previous year. Frederico, Deivid Silva, and Jake Marshall are all veterans, they each have more than a year experience on the Championship Tour. Every single name on this list has surfed in an event on Tour before, which is notable. Not sure if that’s ever happened before. Cole, Crosby, Kade, and Eli have all had wildcards into the wave pool surf ranch rodeo contest. Jacob Willcox has surfed as a wildcard in CT events for literally 10 years – since 2013. We have an interesting, experienced Rookie class on our hands for 2024. It’s not going to be as steep of a learning curve for this batch. An off-hand, uneducated, random prediction I would like to make is that more of these rookies will make the cut than don’t. I don’t think this would shock too many people. There are more than a few guys on tour hanging by a thread right now (I’m looking at you Jordy Smith).
So who is making the cut? Of these rookies:
Cole Houshmand
Sammy Pupo
Jacob Willcox
Crosby Colapinto
Imai deVault
Frederico Morais
That means these surfers will get the ax:
Eli Hanneman
Jake Marshall
Kade Matson
Deivid Silva
The first five events of the year are as follows:
Pipeline
Sunset Beach
Portugal
Bells Beach
Margaret River
I expect Deivid Silva to struggle in the first two events, and he won’t get any results in Australia, which will land him below the cut line barring a massive finish in Portugal. Kade’s best shot at a result might be at Bells. I haven’t seen any clips of him surfing Hawaii. He is a big kid though, it wouldn’t shock me if he did well at Margs. He gets cut. Let us not forget about Jake Marshall’s 5th place at Sunset. He took John John out there. He’ll need another solid finish there to avoid being back on the CS. Last but not least, Eli Hanneman will need to show me something. I just feel he’s a bit undersized. It will be tough for him to match the power of the current CT surfing. Him versus Ethan Ewing out at Bells, who do you got? We know he’s got an insane air game, so he’ll be banking on Portugal for a result, same as Deivid Silva.
As for the “rookies” who will make the cut, Crosby is the most well-rounded surfer of the six. Sammy Pupo is a close second. Imai and Frederico are nearly the same surfer, though I personally favor Imai’s style. Jacob Willcox vs Cole Houshmand would be an interesting matchup to keep tabs on throughout the year. This class is going to be exciting to watch, at the very least. Don’t be surprised to see an event win or a Final 5 surfer in this group. My guess is the rookie rankings will shake out in this order:
Crosby Colapinto (winning Rookie Of the Year)
Sammy Pupo
Jacob Willcox
Frederico Morais
Imaikalani deVault
Cole Houshmand
I know Cole won the CS, but I figure he doesn’t have much experience at any of these venues, it’ll take him a second to get comfortable. Back in his rookie year, I picked Imai to win the ROY. Instead, he fell off tour. I feel like he needs one solid result to get in a groove. I hope it comes early. Frederico is just a sturdy surfer. He’s never an easy out, but he doesn’t quite threaten to win events yet. He needs something to stand out, a bit of an X factor somewhere. We’ll see if he can push his surfing this year. I’m expecting a lot out of the next 3 guys. Willcox might be the dark horse to watch out for. Everyone knows he can handle himself well in heavy waves, and I think his performance surfing will surprise a lot of people. I predicted Sammy to have a better rookie year than he did, but he’s ready now. It’s his time to take over as the Pupo representative on tour. And finally, Crosby might finish the year ranked higher than his brother.
I had to throw in one prediction that was completely out of pocket. In the gambling world, I believe they call that a flyer. If it hits, you hit big and you look like a genius. If not, what’s it matter? Was never bound to happen anyway. I’m not a gambling man though, so I’m not sure.
In the meantime there’s a QS contest at Sunset Beach starting Oct. 28th, and then another at Haleiwa starting Nov. 26th. Not sure if these are what we still consider the Triple Crown or not. I’m also not sure if any of these qualifiers are able to enter those events or not. So, until then.
Cheers,
hwilsin