MOVING DAY

Well, I guess I should say something. We have now approached the most anticipated, and most talked about moment of the year thus far. 

The cut. 

I previously misinterpreted the meaning of ‘moving day’ in golf, hence the title of this post, but we are sticking with it anyway. I thought that moving day was Friday, or the second day of a golf tournament, where if your score isn’t better than half the field, you’re cut. It goes from around 154 golfers down to 70. ‘Moving Day’ is truly known as Saturday, where players “jostle for position” and try to set themselves up for a winning Sunday. Thats the top 45% of the golfers playing on the weekend. The surfing cut was originally announced as the top 36 surfers down to 24. That’s 66% of the surfers traveling to PREMIER parts of the world to surf perfect waves. What was the bitching about again?

I, obviously, as you all know and noticed, completely ignored Bells. Especially all the bullshit with the surfers whining, the petition, and EL ultimately shitting down on everyone. Sorry, shutting everyone down, rather. On a serious note, I think Bells looks like one of the hardest waves to surf. Borderline not-even-fun on a performance shortboard. I get the history, but I am not a fan of the contest. It should absolutely be a QS, or CS rather. It’s a hard contest for me to watch. After thinking this over, I probably should appreciate the surfing done on waves that look like what I am used to surfing. Maybe it’ll come with age. I prefer to watch contests in waves that I like to imagine (pretend) myself surfing, and I promise the first trip I am booking will not be to Victoria to surf Bells.

Now, this petition thing. 22 men signed it, 12 men did not. 8 women signed it, 10 did not. That’s 64% of men saying No-Cut, and 55% of women saying Cut-It. Erik Logan, the CEO of the WSL, wrote back saying it was “inconceivable” to get rid of the cut. He gave an explanation and made a nice way of saying hell no. They also held an in person meeting that was scheduled the day after the petition was sent. Have no update yet on how this whole ordeal went, but I am trying to stretch my hands. Nonetheless, even with my shit talking, I am going to dive into this on another post.

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Here we are discussing what’s about to happen at, and after Margaret River. I saw an interesting spreadsheet posted by this twitter page that I wanted to share. 

I won’t lie to you, I thought this looked pretty legit. Browsing at the numbers though, I have no fucking clue how it works. Based off of this spreadsheet, however:

R.Cal & Cali Munoz both need to make the FINAL.

Joao Chianca, Imai deVault, Deivid Silva, Jady Andre, McGilivray, LeoFio, Fredrico, & Morgan Ciblic need to make the SEMI’S. 

Jake Marshall, Sammy Pupo, Zeke Lau, Conner Coffin, Lucca Mesinas, Jacko Baker, & Owen Wright are all in need of QF’S to even think of being safe. 

That leaves 13 surfers who have “MADE THE CUT”, according to the WSL:

Filipe, Kanoa, JJF, Kelly, Barron Mamiya, Italo, Caio Ibelli, Ethan Ewing, Miguel Pupo, Seth Moniz, Callum Robson, Griffin, & JackRobbo. 

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Now, here’s what’s going to happen, from the top down. The bracket isn’t out until after the elimination round, so this is a rough estimate, but here we go.

Imai deVault will win Margs. Shocking, no? But you clearly remember that I picked this kid for ROY, so we’re all in. Boom or bust here. He’s at the far south end of the rankings/seeding, so he will have to take down some big names, likely including JJF at some point. I’ll take all my credit once this actually comes to fruition. Margarets is a wave known to be similar to Sunset Beach, where this kid has stacked a few absolute bonkers clips. I don’t think this is too far-fetched. 

In the semi’s along with Imai we’re gonna see Kanoa, Italo and Griffin. That’s right folks, that means goodbye to the fan-favorite Joao Chianca. He’s gonna fall JUST short in the Quarters. The rankings could switch up a bit depending on results, so he could still possibly qualify for the back half with his QF’s result. We’ll keep an open mind for him, but it’s looking gloomy. 

What will happen though, is Kanoa jumping back in front of Filipe and getting the Gold jersey into G-Land. Italo has made 2 Quarters, and a Semi, in 5 tries at Margies, including the event that ended at Uluwatu in 2018. He jumps into the top 5, along with Griffin making his return. Griffdawg I am picking solely based off of the clips I have seen of him out at Main Break this week.

Here’s the list of guys who, at this point, would conceivably be eliminated from the back half: 

Joao

Deivid Silva

Jaddy

McGillivray

Leo

Fredrico

Morgan Ciblic

Poof. There goes 7 of 12.

In the QF’s we will have Joao, Zeke, Owen Wright, and Jack Robbo. Look, Margs is a wave that you can’t surf safely and get scores. You need to go big and close out with something dynamic. Joao is going to let everything hang out. My only fear is him getting too loose here, because he already surfs so radical. Zeke is going to use his brute force to remain on for the back half of the year, same type deal he did by qualifying last year and not needing his Ultimate Surfer bid. Owen Wright is just going to do another one of those magical things that he does, and he’s going to clinch his spot as well here. Lot of people think he’s falling off, but we know better. Robbo I think sneaks through some tough heats when/if they run out at the box. I think he loses at Main Break. If it were that easy to win at home, where would Kolohe be now? 

Eliminated in theory, at this point, we say goodbye to:

Jake Marshall

Sammy Pupo

Conner Coffin

Lucca Mesinas

JackoBaker 

12 of 12. 

I am missing both R.Cal and Cali Munoz getting the boot, but both surfers were injured all year. I should also mention Yago Dora and Liam O’Brien who have yet to compete in any events. Presumably these 4 will be candidates for an injury replacement or wild card for the back half of the year, though this is just speculation. 

Real quick – They did just announce Medina will be back. How IS that?! Sorry to you 12, but we’re bringing back the champ, who doesn’t (shouldn’t) need the prize money, sponsorship coverage, or contest results to still live a fine life. Best of luck to you boys on the CS!

And there we have it folks. Your official blueprint to this year’s Mid-Year Cut. Use this as you will. See you on the other side. 

-hwilsin