Tay Ah Who Oh Poo.
Tea Ah Ooh Po Oh.
Teahupoo.
Cho Poo.
Chopes.
Filipe Toledo’s Kryptonite.
How am I feeling about it? Nonchalant. Shallow and Pedantic. Family Guy anyone?
Anyways. With the cut over and done with, we’re entering the sluggish period of the CT year. In my humble opinion, of course. There are no (manufactured) stakes, at least not yet. The next 2 stops feel like they’re going to lack the drama and hype that the last 2 events held. Even Sunset Beach can feel like a sleeper contest, but it sets the stage for the Cut. Lose out early here in Tahiti? That’s okay, pack your bags for El Salvador. You’ve got 3 more chances to win an event and get into the Final 5. You’re already on Tour for next year too, so just enjoy your time. Instead of half of the CT field on Mental Health watch, we are now looking for only 5 surfers to confirm their chances at a World Title.
All of that aside, I’d still be pretty excited to watch this event (as I am any event) if there were going to be waves. According to Surfline, it’s not looking to get overhead until Saturday, but this could be a day to keep an eye on. We will see at least 1, possibly 2 days run before this, in what is being described as ‘playful’ conditions forecasted. Not exactly what you’d want for The End Of The Road. I’m sure Fil Toledo is banging his fists knowing he could have surfed a couple heats this year.
Now, we all know that even if I’m not very fired up, I’ll still be tuned in. Since that is indeed the case, let’s throw some darts.
Predictions
Kelly has won this thing 5 times. With that being said, the lack of swell immediately eliminates him from contention. Don’t expect anything less than a second round loss – at best.
Wanted to get that one out of the way early.
Here are some other names with something to prove (read; I don’t expect much from them in terms of a deep run in the event):
Rio Waida – I can’t even picture Rio in a left hand bowl.
Connor O’Leary – Bit unexpected, but O’Learzy brah has never cracked the QF’s here.
R.Cal – Same deal as Connor, yet even worse. Out of 3 tries, he’s got a 25th and two 17th’s. I’m sure he’s itching to make a heat.
Imai deVault – One of my favorite styles on tour. I’ll keep saying that. You’d imagine he could succeed here being from the heavy water in Hawaii. This is his first event here in Tahiti though, so let’s see.
Jake Marshall – Being from San Diego, the Surf world at large would be pretty shocked with a Finals Day showing from Marshall. I remember Simpo had a good run here one year. Maybe Marshall shows some flashes of my hometown hero.
Italo – I know, shocker. He’s competed here 6 times – made the Quarters twice. Everything else has been throwaways.
And of course we have the favorites:
Jack Robinson – Last year’s event winner is going to be fighting an uphill battle – nobody has ever won this event back to back.
JJF – Though he’s never won here, out of 7 tries he’s lost before Finals Day once – a 2015 Round 3 loss to Medina. Chalk him in for at least a 5th place. The only guy I would place a bet on to be still in the draw on Finals Day.
Barron Mamiya – He’s gotta be a favorite out here right? Right? He’s got a 3rd and a 17th. Small or big, I like his chances. An early loss would be an upset.
Seth Moniz – This may come as a surprise to you, I mean I was surprised to list him here. He has made the Semi’s before though, plus hes got that fucking madman Doug Silva working with him now. Keep an eye on him. Seriously.
Yago Dora – Last two years this dude looked like a real threat out there, ending with back to back 5th place finishes. He’ll be looking to go further this year.
Medina – Two time event winner that is probably already in your fantasy lineup. We expect him to be out for blood, but Gabby has a different feel to him this year. An early loss would leave us all puzzled.
That leaves us with the questionables:
Griffin – He’s been very consistent out here – last 3 trips here he’s got 9th. Which means he’s doing just enough to get through, but really not shining. I think we would all like to see him step it up out there.
Ethan Ewing – Dr. Style aka Mr. Criteria aka Professor Power Surfer is in a similar boat to that of Griffin. He’s not quite a standout, but not a slouch out there either. Remember – he broke his back out here a few years ago. Has to be some residuals. Keep this in mind.
Jordy – A handful of 9ths, a couple of last place results, two 3rd’s – the veteran is really a mixed bag out here. I’d figure the bigger the better for the Southy. Watch his matchups.
Cole Houshmand – I figure this kid to have a huge result, if not win this thing. Big, small, windy, perfect, he should be a threat in everything.
Kanoa – Kanoa’s best result out here came when he needed it most – 2022 when he beat Griffin to secure his slot in the Final 5. He finished in the Quarters that year. Other than that, he’s just been average.
LOB – 9th place in his first try out here last year, losing to event winner Jack Robbo, Liam could be in for something special this year. He got to Tahiti and scored the “wave of his life”. Have a look. There’s some good juju in that.
Crosby – Another guy who just got a mental wave before the event. Filipe would never. Cros ain’t scared. Too bad it won’t look anything like that for the event. The conditions could affect him here.
Ramzi Boukhiam – I’m not sure what to expect from Ramzi. I know Morocco is known for the right hand points, which is why he absolutely tears on his backhand. Can he get bowled with the best of them?
Leonardo Fioravanti – He’s been in a jersey twice out at Chopes. He’s gotten a 25th, and a 3rd. If I’m going off of the year he’s currently having, I think he’ll make some heats. He’s due.
McGillivray – Of course you remember Matty’s 10 here. But what will he do when it’s not 15 feet and perfect?
Do with this information what you will. I could be taking these out of context, but the captions of the WSL’s latest 2 posts say, “begins tomorrow” and, “Less than 24 hours to go”. I’m thinking it will be on tomorrow. I’ll share my fantasy lineup as soon as it gets locked in. I don’t want you stealing my picks again Nathan.
Here is the Heat Draw –
Heat 1 – Ewing vs. Moniz vs. O’Leary
Heat2 – JJF vs. Rio vs. Yago Dora
Heat 3 – Jack Robbo vs. Ramzi vs. Kelly
Heat 4 – Griffin vs. Italo vs. Mihimana Braye
Heat 5 – Jordy vs. Crosby vs. McGillivray
Heat 6 – Jake Marshall vs. Imai deVault vs. Medina
Heat 7 – Barron Mamiya vs. LOB vs. Ryan Callinan
Heat 8 – Cole Houshmand vs. Kanoa vs. Leonardo
I think the event will be running at a nice time for us on the West Coast to watch in the middle of the day. Your boss is going to love it. It’s always fun to chat back and forth about waves and heats and what not while the event is live. Should we start a WhatsApp chat? Could be fun.
Until then, get some waves. Thanks for reading.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield