Instead of a typical prediction piece I might pen for an upcoming event, I wanted to change things up a bit – add a little spice. This is the First Ever hvoide Power Rankings.
The forecast, even though I don’t trust Surfline, looks really solid. That’s going to play a part in these rankings, as well as what has happened up to this point; Current Form, if you will. It’s not all about the standings on the ranking. Matchups, past results at this location, I tried to take it all into account for these Power Rankings.
From the bottom:
36) “Event Seed #36”
- Can not figure out who this is going to be. I am not sure of a Trials event, so we’ll have to see what happens.
35) Eli Hanneman
- I almost have to put Oscar Berry below him, but I won’t. Eli lucked out, straight up. If the waves are what they’re supposed to be down South, Eli is going to bow out in his first heat. We’ve spoken of the size discrepancy. It sucks to say, it really does, but one simply can not see past it. This guy was born with the looks of a career CS surfer. I think he’d have better luck chasing video parts.
34) Al Cleland
- Al has more points than Oscar because he has been seeded higher, but he’s in the exact same situation – he hasn’t made a heat all year. While Oscar looks like he’s close to putting it together, I can not say the same for Al. Heard he’s been cleaning up a sick bar tab along the way.
33) Oscar Berry
- I can’t bring myself to put anyone else higher over Oscar, even if I wanted to. He looked like a balloon letting air out when walking up the rocks in New Zealand and Eli’s score was dropped to beat him. Literally slipped right through his fingers. I just stated that if Oscar doesn’t make a heat here at this next event, he will not make one for the entire year.
32) Seth Moniz
- Every single time I see Seth’s name in the draw I wonder to myself – how the hell is he still on Tour? It’s really remarkable. I tried thinking back on any notable results he’s had and only recalled the Pipeline Final against Slater. He’s crazy talented all around, but just like every other Hawaiian not named John John Florence, he can’t seem to figure it out in a jersey.
31) Ramzi Boukhiam
- If it wasn’t for Oscar Berry, I’d say Ramzi has had the worst luck on Tour this year. Unironically, this is where they sit on the rankings; dead last and next to last. Ramzi has only made 1 Heat this year but sits on a 12.70 average Heat total. He’s surfing good, but damn the dudes just unlucky. He’s got a tough draw in Matty McGillivray, who is in the event as Jordy’s Injury Wildcard Replacement.
30) Alejo Muniz
- Now I know this is a tough look because I’m putting Alejo in here above a few guys who are in R1 and could potentially lose with less points than Mr. Muniz. Thing is, Alejo is losing his first heat. He’s got Kanoa, who I expect to have a great event. I think someone, if not a couple guys out of R1 could have a run. Back to Alejo though, he surprised a lot of people in Raglan when he beat George Pittar. I knew with that wide stance of his, he’s a much stronger surfer on the backhand. His style’s going to be exposed on these long groomed point break rights. Book it.
29) Bryan Perez
- This guy must love having an event here. Feels like he’s got the lifetime Wildcard. He’s gotten the call all 4 years and only made 1 heat, beating Italo in 2024. He’s got the wave dialed, and he’s a big, lanky dude. He’s facing Eli Hanneman in Round 1 and I think the size difference is going to be quite noticeable, especially in some swell. I think he gets through that one, matching up with Miguel Pupo in R2. We’ll get to that one later, but this is where you will see exactly why the Pink Panther is only a wildcard. He has moments but his surfing is too disjointed; he’s not quite at the top CT level, which Miguel is.
28) Matt McGillivray
- I heard from the boys on the LAGO podcast that Matty Ice has all but given up on surfing professionally. Supposedly he’s chasing the Base Jumping, or something of the like. With that said, I guess it is a bit rude that I’ve placed him above literally any other surfer. Matty rips though. He hails from one of the best point breaks in the World. And, he’s done very well here in the past, including a runner up last year to Jordy, and a semi the year before (2024). Sneaky pick for your fantasy team.
27) Luke Thompson
- This is kind of a Matty Ice 2.0. Don’t be shocked to see the 21 year old who also comes from South Africa have his best showing on the CT yet. Interestingly, Luke doesn’t have a matchup yet. Are they running a trials event? I don’t think so. The CT guys and gals have already been out there freesurfing. Speaking of, have a look at Luke’s warmup surfs. He’s been there a while already. He’ll be coming up against Yago in R2 when he gets through the mystery surfer. There’s an upset watch on that Heat.
26) Barron Mamiya
- I’m starting to feel the same way about Barron as I do about Seth. Barron is just a little younger, and he’s already had much more success. I actually take that back. I just don’t really consider Barron much of a threat if the waves aren’t barreling, or the event is not in Hawaii. Again, incredibly talented surfer. He would have won the voting for ‘best section’ of Snapt 4, but had to forfeit the prize money because he reused a clip – against the rules. What I’m getting at is that he’s one of the best freesurfers in the world. And again, something with the jersey. He’s got Connor O’Leary in Round 1.
25) Callum Robson
- The hardest working surfer on the CT, CalTex could play a huge upset role. I would not put it past him. But, he’s got one of the toughest draws you could ask for – Ethan Ewing, who’s got to be an event favorite. Rail game to rail game, we all know who’s got the advantage. Callum is smart. I think he looks for a point of difference and goes to the air. His punt game is not the best in the world, but it’s functional. I just don’t know if it’ll be enough to match whatever kind of ludicrous numbers Ethan will be dropping.
24) Joao Chianca
- Tough for me to put Joao this low. He has not had a great showing this year, only making 1 Heat this far, beating Jake Marshall in a tight one at Margaret River. He made the Quarters out here in 2024, so there is some potential for him to make it through a few Rounds. He’s got George Pittar in his first Heat, which will be a battle. Smooth vs Raw. I think the winner will be condition dependent; if it’s bumpy and windy Joao will have an advantage. If it’s clean and groomed, George’s style will shine.
23) Joel Vaughan
- This feels like an event Joel could do really well at. He’s a past Stab High winner, and this joint has seen its fair share of boosts through its 4 years. He’s up against Sammy Pupo, who is in great form this year. When thinking of it, they have a similar top turn – a high and tight arc in the pocket, half snap, half wrap. This Heat could go either way, but Joel’s going to have to surf up, just based on how this year has been taking shape.
22) Mateus Herdy
- Mateus is going to be very dangerous in this event. If he can get through LeoFio in R2, watch out. This first heat is going to be a slugfest. Leonardo is a tough out. I expect Mateus to bring the same approach here as he did at Snapper – going big above the lip outside. If he starts pulling those down don’t say I did not warn you. If he has a couple of falls early on, he seems to get in his head. A real momentum surfer.
21) Kauli Vaast
- Unfortunately, Kauli has to come up against Filipe straight out of the gate. I would have liked to see him go head on with another goofy. He’s got a really sharp backhand attack. He won a Challenger event at Ericeira, a right hand point, and he made the Quarters at Snapper. Wouldn’t it be a crazy upset for him to take out Filipe? I would love it for the Surfival League. I’m sure a ton of people will pick Fil here. I would too.
20) Marco Mignot
- I like Marco. He’s a very explosive surfer, and I love that his claims look like he’s throwing gang signs. Hilarious. I think Marco carries an air of confidence about him, all the time. He’s got the spring and pop to his airs, and he’ll throw 15 attempts at one in a Heat until he sticks it. He has no shame in his game. He’s up against Rio in Round 2, and those guys surf heats very differently. Marco, caution to the wind – Rio, calculated. Waida’s looked strong this year, but Marco surfs waves like this where he lives down in Mexico. He’ll be feeling comfortable, and maybe even more confident than ever. Tough one to call.
19) Rio Waida
- See above. Rio has been surfing really good this year, and he’s made himself a bit of a mainstay on the Tour at this point. Not cracking too many Finals Day appearances yet, he’s been doing enough to stay in the middle of the pack. I would like to reiterate my belief he got shafted at Snapper. Maybe a revenge run here at this right hand point.
18) Morgan Ciblic
- Coming off the best (and only) result of the year, Morgs just tied a career high Runner Up finish in Raglan. He had not made a Heat prior to that. From Round 1 to the Final, very impressive stuff. I do think he will be riding off a bit of a high from that. His opponent, Crosby, has not lost before the Quarters at this event though. Morgan’s strength is in his backhand hook, which is why I’m not looking too much into that great showing at the last event. I think he may be in trouble here early on.
17) George Pittar
- Now this is a bit of a ‘reach’. GP is ranked 5th in the World Right now. He’s obviously anchored with that Margs win, and he is thanking his lucky stars that he is. He’s found a bit of that same bad luck that Ramzi has, and some may argue that his is even worse; he’s lost two Heats this year with over 14 point Heat totals. That’s tough. George, as mentioned earlier, has Joao in R2. I would guess this is going to be a rail–to-rail Heat, and the judges have been eating up George’s coiled up wraps. Give GP the nod, slightly. I’m not sold on him quite yet.
16) Jake Marshall
- Jake has potential out here. Tall, lanky frame, spread out arms and style. If the waves stand up and get tall, I can see him matching this wave very well. He’s matched up with LOB in R2, and that heat is a coin flip. Marshall’s advantage would have to be on his drawn out carves, while LOB is a bit more aggressive. The pace of this wave might fit Jake really well. Whoever gets through has potential to make at least one more.
15) Jack Robinson
- I could have easily had Robbo ranked a few positions lower; he’s having a tough year. We all know what he’s capable of when the waves turn on though, and even if it might not be a barrel first venue, any kind of juice in the ocean brings Jack to life. He’s got Cole in R2. This is a big heat for Jack. If he’s got any aspirations of a chance at a World Title run this year, it needs to start now.
14) LOB
- Liam just had one of the runs of his life at Snapper. He’s got a tricky matchup in Jake Marshall in R2, they surf pretty similar. I feel like he’s got more pizazz to his surfing – a bit more flair. Still, this heat could come down to whoever gets the better waves. Either one of these guys could be good to make another Round or Two, as noted.
13) Cole Houshmand
- Big wave, big dude, big power. I thought about this heat for quite a while though. Jack’s gonna throw a ton of variety, and Cole’s gonna throw a ton of spray. The backhand has felt like it’s been getting the upper hand this year, in general, but I’ve a feeling that could change at this event. It’s a long wave, and it needs to be paced well. The variety could come into play. I’m giving Cole a higher ranking because he’s in better form after New Zealand.
12) LeoFio
- Leonardo crept up the rankings. I originally had him a bit lower. He is such a grinder, such a smart competitor. He uses every advantage he can get, and if Mateus is falling on his waves, watch Leo juice every last drop of his rides, all the way down the point and onto the rocks. I don’t think he’ll fall once in this Heat, and if Mateus does start sticking some airs, Leo’s going to do his best to match. I think his experience and sure will are going to get him through over the Rookie Herdy.
11) Italo Ferreira
- This might be a little rude. The dude just won at Raglan, however debatable it might have been. He probably could be ranked above Miguel. But if I’m looking at the bracket of the draw, Italo has a tough route. He gets the Winner of McGillivray and Ramzi, which is not an easy Heat, and then he’ll likely see Crosby (Morgan Ciblic is the other option in R3). The bigger it is, the harder it will be for Italo to land those helicopter backside rotations. I don’t expect him to have a deep run here.
10) Miguel Pupo
- Miguel’s shocking run this year has a chance to continue. He looks really good in the freesurfs. He’ll face the Winner of Eli Hanneman and Bryan Perez. I like Miggy’s chances. Then he’ll have a tough one against Kanoa. He makes that Heat, and his dream World Title Run can become a little bit more realistic.
9) Crosby Colapinto
- I didn’t want to go too high with Cros. Even though he’s never lost before the Quarter Finals here, he is coming off a complete downer in New Zealand. He was visibly frustrated in the Lineup with absolutely no waves. It will be interesting to see any roll over from that event – Crosby in a negative, and his opponent Morgan Ciblic in a positive. Crosby’s talent level is higher on the surface, I think, but he gets in his head. I’ll be watching this heat closely. As a side note, if the Colapinto’s happen to meet in the Semi’s, I’m backing Crosby to get some revenge.
8) Sammy Pupo
- I really think Sammy could break out here. He is already on a bit of a Heater, and this venue suits him to the tee. He’s got a favorable road to at least the Quarters, if not Semi’s. He is one guy that I feel struggles when he gets behind in Heats. He surfs a bit desperate when he doesn’t need to. If he can cut that out and just surf on talent back into a Heat, he’s got a shot to Win some events. He’s matched up against Joel Vaughan in R2, and if Joel sticks a big punt early on, this is where Sammy could sweat. I’m banking on the younger Pupo putting up a score early.
7) Connor O’Leary
- After a let down in Raglan, O’Leary has to be itching to get back on the (Heat Winner’s) glass. This is the type of wave that he shines on, that backhand hook being the star of the show. He’s matched up with Barron Mamiya in R2, and if I were a wagering man I would throw it all on Connor winning that Heat. We’ll see if he can build some momentum from there, as this wave can be a bit disjointed at times. I’ll be watching to see who’s got the bigger backhand reo; Connor or Cole.
6) Kanoa Igarashi
- I hinted at it earlier, but I expect a big event from Kanoa. This wave is not unlike Keramas, which was where Kanoa won his only ever CT event. He made the QF’s twice here in the first 2 years of running here, and then he’s had two early exits since then – both 17th’s (2024 & ‘25). He’s got one of the most favorable matchups early on, so I am looking at Round 3 where he would potentially get the Winner of Miguel Pupo & Bryan Perez. Another winnable Heat. I like the looks of Kanoa getting to the Quarters, at least.
5) Ethan Ewing
- After his Snapper performance, Ethan has to be an event favorite. The only thing in my mind is that other than that Win, he’s only made 2 heats in the 3 events. He also has not made it past the Quarters in the event in 4 tries. He’s got Callum Robson early, and I do not think Ethan can play the sit and wait game. He’ll get into trouble. He’s got to surf a ton, just let his talent do the talking. If he catches enough waves the judges will see his full repertoire of maneuvers in comparison to CalTex, and it’ll be hard to be Ewing, for anyone.
4) Yago Dora
- Yago feels a little bit too high here for me, but he is in form. It’s tough to go against him. He has a Runner Up finish here in 2024 to John John Florence, and you likely remember the Airshow he has put on here before. Will it be a little to big for the punts? Maybe. But Yago has a strong enough rail game, good enough style to get through a few heats without having to boost. He’ll be alright, though I don’t know if he’s making Finals Day.
3) Filipe Toledo
- Flip’s surfed this event 3 times. He’s got a Win, a Runner Up, and a 17th last year, losing in truly surprising fashion to Al Cleland. He’s got Kauli in Round 1, which I see Filipe using as a warm up Heat. Don’t expect him to pull the cat out of the bag just yet. He’s going to cruise into gear here. As long as he gives it enough gas early on, he’ll be in this event late in the draw, with a huge potential to Win.
2) Griffin Colapinto
- If it wasn’t for Griffin’s shocker loss to Mateus in R2 at Snapper, he’d be in a much better position, rankings wise. That dropped result at the end of the year will do him well. Griff won this event the first year it ran, and then got Runner Up the following year (2023). A few disappointing results since then, 9th in 2024 and 17th last year, I’m sure Griffin wants to get deep into the draw. Cleland took out Filipe last year here, can he get another Heavy Hitter this year? Griffin is going to have a run, so long as he does not slip against Al. All he really needs to do is offer Cleland an open bar tab the night before they surf . . .
1) Medina
- The in form surfer of the year. Does not really matter who he comes up against, Medina’s due for a run. Looking at the bracket, he’d match up with Griffin in the Quarters. After back-to-back 9th place finishes (both losses to Filipe), I’m sure Medina is itching to see a Finals Day. I don’t think he is pressing for it. As we’ve talked about before he seems to be in a great head space, and the best part of the year is yet to come for him – Teahupoo, Cloudbreak, etc. A big result here is another step closer to the Title.
So there we have it. The first official hvoide Power Rankings. 2026 El Salvador event edition.
What do ya think?
What’s your fantasy surf team look like?
I’ll show you mine if you show me yours..
Drop a comment below.
It’ll be fun to look back at this after the event and see how bad it looks. Maybe it won’t be fun. Either way, we’ll have a look. Contest will be on tomorrow. It’s been firing in the freesurfs. Have a watch here.
Check back after Day One.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield