Well I guess the first thing to do is to look at the forecast right? That’s the M.O; see the wave prediction before we make the surfing prediction. Talk about how this surfer is better than that one in the waves we might see in the first few rounds. Advise picking a fantasy team who suits the ‘likely’ conditions. And this works out exactly how we’d like, correct?
I imagine I’d fare better if I put a blindfold on and threw darts at my choices. Thankfully I’m not betting on the Woz. Yet.
Nonetheless, I am still going to give you some kind of prediction piece. What do you think I’m writing this for? It’s like the lotto; I’m gonna win, keep guessing, or die.
Here’s what I’m looking at for the Hurley Sunset Beach Open, the waiting period opened yesterday. It’ll likely be on today.
The waves for this contest were cooking last year. It looked like your average mediocre surfer would have had fun out there. Really rippable. I’m hoping for something more daunting this year. Some intimidation. Something we missed from Pipeline. Fingers crossed. Looks like wind. Yesterday the Wizzle admitted this is “the most challenging wave on tour”. From the top down now:
Jack Robinson – Does not matter the conditions, Jack has a legit shot to go back-to-back right now. In QS events (much bigger field, 4 man heats) at Sunset, he’s won twice, two 2nd’s, a 3rd, a 4th, and three Semi’s. Last year he lost in the Quarters to eventual runner-up Kanoa, who was on a complete heater. There is a select handful who have what it takes to beat Robbo out here. Jack matches his result from last year, at the least. I’ve got him in the Semi’s. And if he looks all giddy and fired up and sneaky in those post heat interviews again, watch out.
Leonardo Fioravanti – This could be it. Could be the year Leo is here to stay. Let’s see how far he takes this run. He’s competed out at Sunset quite a bit, only making the Quarters twice. Fell to Zeke Lau last year in R32. In my mind, Leo is about a middle of the pack Sunset surfer. If he were to win this thing, he would have to pull off an upset in at least one or two heats. He’s not quite a John John, Zeke, Jordy or JackRobbo, but he’s also not a goofy foot. I think he could touch the Quarters, but I’m not sure he gets past there. That would be a nice finish to back up the best result of his career. I think he goes down one round earlier, in the R16.
Caio Ibelli – I’m starting to believe that Caio might just be a standup, 100% good dude. The ocean rewards the guy. In Hawaii, in heavy waves, wherever, the battler has some mojo. Obviously Sunset is a heavy wave, and in Hawaii, so what do you expect? Last year he took out Conner Coffin, Kolohe, and Zeke Lau, three matchups he was surely the underdog. Event winner Barron Mamiya hardly took him out in a tightly contested semi final. You should rewatch that heat now and tell me if you agree with the judges. If Caio doesn’t fall on his last turn of the heat I think he wins. Shit, I think he won anyway comparing those first two keeper scores. He carried my fantasy team through Pipe, but I’m not going to stick with him. I am not a fan of when an underdog gets too much hype, and then almost turns into a favorite because he is the popular underdog. Watch for that. Caio loses early, R32.
Joao Chianca – Only competing twice at Sunset before last year, he made the Quarters once, at the Vans World Cup in 2019. Joao lost to Seth Moniz here last year in R32, and it was the only heat he surfed because he advanced straight through the opening round due to an injury withdrawal. This is a wave where you need to know what you are looking for and what you are trying to do. The stop is a bit of a question mark for the young, talented Brazilian. A big result here would bring Final 5 whispers. It could be in the cards, but I’m really glad he bagged a nice result at Pipe, because when he falls out early here again this year, we won’t have to sweat too much for him yet. Joao bows out R16 – 9th place.
Filipe Toledo – I told you I don’t like when the underdog becomes the favorite. So I sure as hell don’t like when the favorite is the big favorite, as Filipe is to win the title again this year at Lowers. Expect me to be rooting against Flip all year – though truly nothing personal. I think I like him the most out of all the Brazilian Storm, aside from Yago. I still want him to not make a heat and lose in the earliest round possible, something that hasn’t happened since 2017. Last year he was in the Opening Round heat with Caio where they both automatically advanced without surfing. He then surfed an impressive heat, besting the Hawaiian surfing superman Billy Kemper with two 8’s. Ethan Ewings rail game was too much for him to match in the R16, though he tried his mightiest with a 9.10 and a mid-low 7. What I am saying to you is he was ripping. I don’t expect a repeat performance, but the result will be the same. Toledo out in the Round of 16.
John John Florence – John losing to Jake Marshall in well overhead, pretty good looking Sunset Beach could have been the shocker heat of the whole season last year. I’m keeping notes for this year’s nominees. The 17th place was the worst result of his year before getting injured in G-Land. I don’t see that same outcome going down again. He won the Vans World Cup here in 2011, and got 3rd in 2015. He’s also won the Triple Crown 5 times, the last two being of the digital format. We know he’s got what it takes out here. He’ll be one of the last four standing with a shot to win this thing forsure, but I’m going out on a limb to say John wins this thing.
Jordy Smith – Jordy is another past winner out here – the 2016 Vans World Cup. With his size and style, it’s quite blatant that he should be able to click at Sunset. Last year he lost out to fellow big man Zeke Lau in a tricky, low scoring affair where it looked like Jordy could not pick the right wave. Jordy is too strong to lose early here, though he doesn’t make it as far as he could, still suffering a disappointing loss in the Quarters.
Liam O’Brien – It wasn’t a huge surprise to see LOB in the Quarters at Pipe. The kid is quiet and relatively under the radar, but he can charge. He’s not afraid of some power in the ocean, which Sunset obviously brings. It will be interesting to see what he shows us out on the open face. He’s competed out at Sunset in 5 QS events before, making only 4 heats, and he obviously had to miss last year’s event here due to injury, so he’s got something to prove here. He’s not a small dude; a bit lanky in stature but near 6 feet tall. I could imagine him making a few heats, but like I said, it’s gotta be proven. I think he falls R32.
Miguel Pupo – Miggy’s competed in 10 WSL contests out at Sunset since 2011, and he’s never made more than 2 heats in an event. He saw the dreaded 33rd at this stop last year, his highest scoring ride an even 4. This has to be the hardest location for goofy footers all year, even more so than Bells. And not until last year did Miguel make it out of the first two rounds of Bells in 6 tries. A similar story is being written at Sunset Beach. Nothing changes here, sorry Miggy. An Opening Round heat win would be big for him, as well as for any right foot forward surfer. Skipping the Elim Round would feel nice, but even with that he would be gone in R32. Based on his surfing here last year, I’ve got him as one of the first four out in the Elimination Round.
Callum Robson – Callum could be a serious threat here. Even with an early loss last year to JackRobbo, he still had a solid showing with over a 14 plus heat total. You can never be too bummed when you lose to an 8 and a 9 point ride. This stop was the worst result for the front half of his year, so you can be sure this grinder is looking to better that. He’s gonna make the Quarters.
Gabriel Medina – This will be Gabby’s first CT event at Sunset since he obviously missed last year. He’s been in 6 QS events out there before though, landing a 2nd and a 5th place. If any goofy footer were to have a run here, we all figure it would probably be him right? He has the size, quickness, and strength (read: speed, power, flow) that it would take someone on their backhand to put up a nice result. Unfortunately for Gabby, he’s got the current World #1 constantly looking to bash him any chance he gets. Also, any other surfer who pulls Medina’s name in the draw knows they have to surf to the best of their abilities to try and win the heat. Don’t be shocked to see Gabby go down in a “shocker” to an underdog. We’ll give the World Champ a couple of heats, but he’s out by the Round of 16.
Yago Dora – Another vet who will be at Sunset for the first time in a CT. He has experience out here, but no real keeper results. This is a strong, fast, difficult wave to surf, and you need to have a style to match. As well rounded as Yago is, I don’t believe he is the goofy to crack the Quarters code. He’s out in R32.
Seth Moniz – Only losing to the event champion (and wildcard) Barron Mamiya, Seth carried momentum into Sunset last year from his Pipeline final showing. He had a nice run into the Quarters, with a big heat win over Joao out there. Yes, he’s Hawaiian and yes, he’s familiar with the wave, winning a pro Junior out here, but his stature and surf style would not be the first to come to mind when thinking about Sunset Beach. Last year in the CT was the most heats he had made in a single event out there. Also keep in mind he was in the Elimination round and squeaked out. Seth goes down early this year, R32. He’s going to be on the bubble watch.
Ryan Callinan – This is my goofy dark horse for this event for no real reason at all. RCal has competed here in 5 QS events, Quarterfinal 9th being his best result in 2019. Same deal as with LeoFio, I think Ryan has found comfort in his own skin and is ready to thrive on tour. He’s about to start rolling, and I see him getting through some heats. RCal to the quarters.
Rio Waida – Rio is going to struggle here. This is probably a common take. I’m guessing he’s been surfing Sunset every day since he lost out of the Pipe contests, he is that committed, but I don’t think it’ll make much difference. He’s a bit undersized. He’ll either need some dumb luck, or a great coach to get him advancing in this event. Rio is out in R32.
Ian Gentil – This kid has been competing out at Sunset for over 10 years. I expect some knowledge like that to play a big part. He’s got the frame, and he’s got the style. I might be putting a burden on the rookie, but in my opinion, he could be a standout for this comp. This is my biggest gamble of the event. Ian grabs a 5th place finish in the Quarters.
Italo Ferreira – Italo only put up some mid range scores last year in the scorching surf. Nothing over a 6. That tells me a bit about what I need to know for this year. Keeping it short and sweet, Italo is gonna go down early again. R32.
Ethan Ewing – As previously mentioned, YEWing laid down the rail & hammer on Toledo last year with an 18.24 heat total, the highest of the event. He was only stopped short by Kanoa in what was a fantastic Quarterfinal heat to watch. He made the final out here at the Vans World Cup in 2019, finishing 3rd. One could say Ethan’s surfing is tailor made for a wave like this. He proves this theory correct. Ewings in the Final.
Kanoa Igarashi – Per a recent Stab interview, this is the first year Kanoa believes he can win the World Title. He better get to work. 17th place isn’t going to land him in the Top 5. A Semi in a Vans World Cup and the runner-up finish last year should give him a bit of confidence out here. He’s too savvy, too experienced and cold-blooded to have back to back early exits, but he also doesn’t run too deep. Kanoa grabs 9th – out in R16.
Griffin Colapinto – Griffin had a bit of a shocker here last year. He lost in the Opening round, falling to the Elimination round, but he squeaked out of that in 2nd, and then lost to goofy footed Connor O’Leary in R32. You must remember O’Leary’s wildly massive lip line hit/floater for the 9.43. Griff lost with two high sevens. A tough L. He took that loss and wrote journals about it and turned the story into a Portugal win. Last year, inconsistency was his issue, which is why he did not make the Final 5. I can guarantee this very thing is on his mind right now. He knows he needs to better his results from last year, which were back to back 17th’s – something he’s a risk of again. I think Griff might suffer a crippling loss. We shall see how strong the force really is with this one. He’s out in R32 again.
Connor O’Leary – One of the last 4 goofies standing last year, O’Leary corrected his horrible Opening Round heat with a few “surprising” heat wins, as just mentioned. He ended up losing a very winnable one against Jake Marshall though. Jake beat him with a 9.66 heat total, Connor needing just a 5.5. He’s a big kid that can handle the power of this open ocean wave. That being said, he is a goofy footer. He goes down swinging in the Elimination Round with the 33rd.
Samuel Pupo – Sammy fell to the style master Ethan Ewing last year, though he surfed well and put up good numbers. He matched Ethan on backup waves with 6.83’s, but his high 7.93 was overshadowed by Ewings 8.67. Samuel is not the tallest guy on tour, he looks like he carries a bit of weight on him, so he can presumably push some water. His surfing is more likened to sharp, tight, pocket-y surf than it is to the flatter, more difficult waves to surf. Sammy falls out in the Round of 32.
Kelly Slater – A notorious Sunset hater, Kelly’s not going to do well here. He doesn’t like the wave and he doesn’t care. As I said before, I think we will say goodbye to him at the mid-year cut. He’s not out in the Elimination Round because he gets 2nd in the Opening Round, but he loses R32.
Barron Mamiya – What a marvel last year was for this kid. After his breakthrough win, however, he’s struggled. Maybe this wave brings back a bit of juju. Maybe the pressure and hype of being the reigning champ is too much. Maybe neither of those matter, and he loses in the Round of 32.
Nat Young – The first time Nat surfed in a contest at Sunset was the same year Kelly won his 11th World Title. Little while ago, right? The Santa Cruz kid has seen his cracks out here. As mentioned, experience will play a bit of a role over the next week, week and a half. Not enough of a role to get the American Ace Buchan through the Round of 32 though. Sorry, I’m heavily favoring the regulars.
Jake Marshall – The rung that Mr. Marshall can hang his professional surf boots on; Quarterfinal finish at the 2022 Hurley Pro Sunset Beach, taking out posterboy John John Florence en route. Seriously though, that’s pretty sick. An accomplishment I would hold in my back pocket at every bar I went out to. Cherish the memory, it won’t happen again. Jake is out in R32.
Kolohe Andino – Brother Andino got 2nd in the World Cup to Conner Coffin in 2017. I’d love to see that type of surfing from him right now. I do not believe he’s got that drive, that will to win still in him. I think due to not only being a husband and a father, but his creative avenues are starting to open up. I am saying this in hopes of being proven wrong. He does move through a few heats. Round of 16 for the veteran.
Jackson Baker – I’ve got a feeling Jacko is a big time momentum surfer. Like a snowball, if he gets it rolling downhill it just grows. Would really like to see him put up some solid numbers early on in the contest. Unlikely though. He’s surfed a decent amount of heats out here, but not enough. Bakers out in Round of 32.
Maxime Huscenot – It was between Ian Gentil and this other rookie for who would make an unanticipated run. I took Ian only because he’s made a few more heats than Maxime out here. The surfer from Reunion Island is no stranger to this lineup though, he has been in contests at Sunset since 2011. He’s never made the Quarters though. Maxime might still have a bit to figure out at this wave. Maybe it will happen this year, so that next year he can make the Quarters, because this year he’s out in R16.
Michael Rodrigues – Tough prediction here. He doesn’t look big, and I have no idea what he surfs like. He’s been in the jersey 4 times out at Sunset, losing in his first round 3 out of 4 tries. Since he’s a regular, well say he makes it out of the Opening Round, and no further. 17th place, out in Round of 32.
Zeke Lau – We might as well call him Mr. Sunset. He’s won 3 QS events, and got 2nd twice here. This place is his calling card. With a nice showing in the Quarters last year, a surprise loss to Caio Ibelli ended his run. Interesting to look at that situation now after what took place at Pipe. What a dream it would be to see their names together in the heat draw again. You can’t script it! Don’t say I didn’t say anything. Zeke one ups his result last year with a keeper Semi Final finish.
Carlos Munoz – Cali has made a QF out here. He’s a lively surfer. This place calls for long drawn lines, and comparing Munoz to some of the other guys on this list is a tough look for the Costa Rican. Carlos goes down in R32.
Matt McGillivray – The last two times the Vans World Cup ran – 2018 & 2019 – Matty Ice was in the Quarters. He’s shown some potential out there, and that’s obviously something I’m looking for. It was going to be a tight decision between him and Jacko Baker for who would go further, but I’m giving the nod to McGillivray. He matches his result last year dropping in R16, a 9th place result.
WILDCARDS:
Keanu Asing – Ah I feel like I’ve missed Keanu. He’s got a bit of that Hawaiian Lava Flow Fire in him like Zeke. The tour needs that shit severely. He shows up with a fuck it attitude and makes it out of the Elimination Round. Nothing further though, and he’s out R32.
Kai Lenny – Was supposed to be in this event last year, but he pulled out with an injury. Kai is really interesting and I’m a fan of everything he does, but I don’t think his performance surfing is on par with the Tour guys. It is going to be windy as shit. Maybe he pops some of those crazy wind blown air reverses, that would be interesting to see scored. Whatever he does, it’ll accompany a loss in the Elimination Round.
Eli Hanneman – Kinda feel bad for this kid. I would be so bummed if this were the first event I got called up to the CT to surf as a wildcard in. Especially, not to point any fingers, but this is not the largest, strongest contender on the Challenger Series. This is a notorious Power wave, and I think its either a cruel, fucked up joke to make this his first event, or they really didn’t think it out to well. Young Eli goes home in the Elimination Round.
To sum it up, if you just want to know who will be standing on finals day, have a look:
FINAL – John John beats Ewing.
SEMI – Ewing beats Zeke Lau. John John beats JackRobbo
QF – John beats Ian Gentil. JackRobbo beats Jordy. Ewing beats RCal. Zeke beats Callum.
R16 Loss – LeoFio, Joao, Filipe, Matt McGillivray, Maxime, Kolohe, Kanoa, Gabby.
R32 Loss – LOB, Caio, Carlos Munoz, Michael Rodrigues, Jacko Baker, Jake Marshall, Nat Young, Barron, Kelly, Sammy Pupo, Griffin, Italo, Rio, Seth Moniz, Yago.
33rd – Eli Hanneman, Kai Lenny, Connor O’Leary, Miggy Pupo.
The heat draw was posted a day or so after I started this write up. I’m not too sure how much that will play into effect, because the seeding is shuffled around after the Elimination Round. Still, you can play some favorites for the Opening Round, specifically looking at who could go down in Elimination. The contest should be starting today, and I am a bit eager to watch this entire post go through the shredder. Imagine something like John and Ethan going down on the first day, what a fool I would feel. Anyways, after the Elimination Round – so hopefully after today – I will be trying something new that you can be involved in. It has to do with surfing and the contests. An interactive thing of sorts. Stay tuned, and thanks for the time.
Cheers,
hwilsin