The time has just about come. This year’s circus will reach an end sometime in the next 10 days, and all that we will be left with are 5 jesters ready to battle dance across Southern California’s premier performance court. 2 of the clowns are already confirmed – with no exact positioning, leaving 3 open slots.
If you happen to be uninformed, the 2 verified talents you will be watching in September are Filipe Toledo & Jack Robbo.
Now I will break down the possibilities of what could happen at the End of the Road, and the few scenarios we could see shake out over there. Starting with the least likely, we’ll make our way toward what might actually happen.
*Here is your fair warning – this post is pretty confusing. It is filled with a lot of theoreticals. The best way to read this is as if you were a fan of each individual surfer. This will help portray what needs to happen for each guy to make it into ‘The Playoffs’.*
**DISCLAIMER – This post does not include John John Florence, as it is my belief he will not be in Tahiti.**
Firstly, I was beyond shocked to find out that mathematically speaking, Sammy Pupo – currently #11 – could still make the final 5. He needs pretty close to a miracle to get there though, so here’s what that Miracle would look like:
-He would need to win the event.
-Griffin needs to lose first heat (elimination round).
-Kanoa needs to lose in R16 or before.
-Callum Robson can not make the final.
The only surfer currently in the top 5 who Sammy can catch is Griffin. Which means anybody rooting for the kid will be looking for that early loss by Griff. Keep in mind that all of these prerequisites have to happen. No event win, and no final 5 for young Sammy. What a year for him though – He’s looking to finish in the top 10, and could possibly even finish higher than his brother! (Who we will get to shortly). I can imagine him really surprising people in the coming years on tour. Congrats grom.
Separating Sammy and his brother Miguel is a mere 275 points, landing Miggy in a tie for 9th place. – That’s right folks, Miguel Pupo is currently tied with Connor O’Leary at 30,195 points. What this means is that both of these goofies are also theoretically in the race to Lowers. Only one of these two can squeak in, however, and the clinch would come by order of – not quite a miracle, but something very special happening. In order for either of these surfers to make it into the final 5, the following would need to take place:
-Event win.
-Griffin needs to lose in R16 or before.
-Kanoa needs to lose in R16 or before.
Miguel & Connor can not catch Italo or Ethan, no matter the results. Same deal as with Sammy, the only surfer they have the opportunity to catch is Griffin, although these 2 surfers have 1 extra heat to spare. Sammy needs Griff to lose in the Elimination Round, while O’Leary and Miguel still have a shot if Griff happens to lose in Round of 16. The heat draw is now out, and I don’t know exactly how to work out the possible results, but I could imagine one of these 3 (Miggy, Sammy, & O’Leary) possibly having a shot to match up with Griffin in the R16.
These first 3 surfers can be confidently looked at as complete long shots and wild cards to make it into the Final 5. For any one of them to make it in, they need to win the event, which means only 1 of these 3 can get there.
This may not be the first or last time I have said this – I am not a betting man. IF I WERE though, I would lay down on some odds for O’Leary to make the Final 5 out of these 3. Of the 8 possible surfers who are still trying to qualify for Lowers, he’s got the 2nd best results out at Chopes – two 9th place finishes (in 2 tries), only behind Italo, who has two 5th’s.
**INTERESTING SIDE NOTE**
Everyone in surf media loves to blurt out how Filipe is unproven in any waves of consequence. I completely agree. Off the top of my head, I can’t remember ever seeing him pack a serious bowl out there at Chopes or Pipe (only a youtube click away, I’m sure). Here’s what I just found – of the 10 surfers left on the dance floor, none have had a better result here than Flip. He got 3rd in 2018. He also has two 9th place finishes (2019 & 2015). Something to keep in mind.
Now we get into the 2 surfers who have a viable shot to get into the Finals. Callum Robson has a route to the final 5, but he needs some help, and he will need to help himself. At this point he can catch Italo and Griffin, and can also pass Kanoa. This is how Callum can find himself into the Final 5 picture:
- Making the Final. Bottom line is he can not make up the points on Griffin without making it into the Final.
- If Italo loses in the Elimination Round, Callum can catch him by winning the event. Other than this, CalRob can’t catch the only former World Champ.
- Griffin loses before the Semi’s. If Griff finishes 3rd place or better, Callum can not catch him.
- If Griffin makes Quarters, Callum needs to win the event.
- If Griffin loses R16, Callum needs to win.
- Griffin loses in the Elim Round, Callum makes the final.
To pass Kanoa and have a shot for 6th, Callum needs:
- Kanoa losing before the Final.
- If Kanoa loses Semi’s, Callum needs to win the event.
- If Kanoa loses Quarters, Callum needs to win the event.
- If Kanoa loses R16, Callum needs to make the Final.
- If Kanoa loses Elim Round, Callum needs to make Semi’s.
So CalRob can’t catch Ethan. Looking at Italo, that’s gonna be tough as well (he’s had 2 QF finishes). If there is some real swell, I have no doubt Callum is going to be SENDING it over the ledge. Take a look at the first wave he caught in a contest at Pipe here, for example. Depending on how much of a connection with the wave he can build, and how much of a heater he can get on, I can truly see him making an exciting run. In the end, Callum’s run will be decided by the next 2 surfers.
Kanoa Igarashi will essentially be having a surf-off with Griff. That will be the most direct route to the final 5 for him. If and when Griffin loses, Kanoa needs to advance to the next round after that to pass Griffin. Example) Griff loses in R16, and Kanoa makes the Quarters, Igarashi will surpass Colapinto. So on and so forth through the contest. If Griff and Kanoa met in the final, the winner would be in. Griffin is not the only surfer who Kanoa is relying on, however.
Italo is another surfer Kanoa can catch. If Italo loses in the Elim round, Kanoa needs to make the Semi’s. Italo losing in R16 means Kanoa needs to make the final. If Italo makes the QF, Kanoa needs to win the event. If Italo loses in the semi’s, Kanoa can still pass him by winning the event. If Italo makes the final, Igarashi can not catch him.
Kanoa is the only surfer outside of the top 5 who could catch and knock Ethan Ewing out of the Lowers picture. If Ethan loses in the Elimination Round, Kanoa can pass him by making the Final. If Ewing loses in R16, Kanoa can only pass him by winning the event. If Ethan makes the QF’s, Igarashi can not catch him.
Again, Kanoa’s most direct route into the finals is to one-up Griffin’s result. But, in case that was too many words for you, here’s another point-by-point breakdown for how Kanoa finds himself in the Final 5:
- Bettering Griffin’s result by one round.
- Italo losing Elim Round, Kanoa making the semi’s.
- Italo losing R16, Kanoa making the final.
- Italo losing QF, Kanoa winning.
- Italo losing Semi’s, Kanoa winning.
- Ethan losing Elim round, Kanoa making the final.
- Ethan losing R16, Kanoa winning.
If ANY of the previous scenarios happens, Kanoa is in the Final 5. Thus, we now know what each surfer currently sitting on the outside needs to do, and what needs to happen for them to get into the Playoff Picture.
Let us now take a look at what the 3 surfers currently sitting in the final 5 need to do to secure their position at Lowers. If you haven’t pieced that together already, essentially, I’ll just reverse everything we’ve already gone through so that you, our true and loyal dedicated fan and supporter, can know just what it takes for your pick to make the Final 5. We’ll start with #5 Colapinto, and work our way up.
Griff will be locked in the Top 5 if he:
- Wins the event.
Kanoa is on his tail. Anything less than an event win, it is possible for him to fall out and not make the playoffs at his home field. He needs to better Igarashi’s result to keep his spot. Look up ^^ if you’d like to see how Kanoa can pass him.
Italo Ferreira can lock his spot in the Final 5 by:
- Making the final.
If Italo reaches the Final, regardless of any other surfers results, he’ll be safe. We obviously have to see how the event plays out, but IF I were to throw a couple bones, Italo will be at Lowers next month. Again, the only 2 surfers who can catch Italo are Kanoa and Callum. CalRob is a long shot. If Italo can win the first round heat and avoid the Elim Round, Callum is out of contention with Ferreira. Kanoa should be looked at as the only real threat.
Now, last but not least, Ethan Ewing. In my opinion – would be quite the shocker not to see him next month. Only one surfer can knock Ethan out of the contest, Kanoa, and that is all based off of Ethan’s own results. Ethan can lock his spot in the Final 5 by:
- Making the Quarter Finals.
Essentially this is making 1 heat. How crazy is that? If you place 1st in the 1st round, you are in R16. Make one heat and you’re in QF’s. So maybe Ethan places 2nd or 3rd in the Opening Round, he’ll have to make it through the Elimination Round. Then he comes to R16. Which means he needs to get through at least one, possibly two heats to lock his spot in the Finals. He’s right there. If Ethan bows out early, I can imagine the next few days to be completely drama filled.
If you have followed along so far, congratulations, and thank you. Like I said, bit of a confusing post, but I tried to make it as clear as possible. If you’re interested enough, you can keep this post up on the side of the webcast and refer back to each individual surfer as they progress through.
My personal prediction (guess) for Final 5-
- Jack
- Filipe
- Italo
- Ethan
- Griffin
Cheers. -hwilsin