For all of the complaining during the last 5 years, I do find it just a little ironic that this year’s Title Race comes down to the last event of the season, and that it’s a race of 6 surfers – at least on the Men’s side. The field of potential winners on the Women’s side has one extra participant. It makes me wonder; if the Final 5 would have been held at Pipeline all this time, would it have been viewed as negatively as it was?
Anyways, here we are now. And here we go to Pipeline. Just about a month to go before we should be crowning a World Champion for this year. A season long champ for the first time since 2019. Exciting stuff.
Before we begin, I would like to point out that all of this information is via our good friend Alan over at Vortex Heat Cast (@ vortexheatcast on IG – or vortexheatcast.com ). They’ve been putting out some fantastic content on Social Media, which is where these numbers came from. I highly suggest you give him a follow. Let’s get into it.
MEN –
As noted, there are 6 Men who can technically still win the Title, however unlikely it may be.
For the Win:
Leonardo Fioravanti would need to Win Pipeline, and Yago + Medina could not finish higher than 9th place. Also, Italo could not finish higher than 3rd.
Miguel Pupo would need to Win Pipeline, and Yago + Medina could not finish higher than 9th.
Griffin Colapinto would need to Win Pipeline, and Yago + Medina could not finish higher than 5th.
Italo could Win the Title if he Wins Pipe, with Yago finishing no better than 3rd, and Medina finishing no better than 5th. Italo could also win if he finishes runner up – depending on what Medina and Yago do.
If Medina and Yago meet in the Final, the Winner Pipeline will also be the World Champion.
Of course there are a ton of scenarios that could play out before then, but the main points are as follows:
Medina could win the World Title with as low as a 9th place finish, depending on other surfers.
Yago could win the World Title with as low as a QuarterFinal finish, depending on other surfers.
It’s an interesting look because as of this moment, Yago is in 1st and will be wearing the Gold Jersey. When the year is done and the throwaway events are added in, Yago will need to better Medina by one placing at this event. Gabe has the advantage.
WOMEN –
There are 7 Women who can technically still win the Title. Here’s what each are looking at for the Win:
Sawyer Lindblad could Win the Title if she Wins Pipe, Molly finishes in 5th place or worse, Carissa finishes in 9th, and Caity finishes in 3rd or worse.
Luana Silva could Win the Title if she Wins Pipe, Molly finishes in 5th place or worse, Carissa in 9th, and Gabby Bryan in 3rd or worse.
Gabriela Bryan could Win the Title if she Wins Pipe, Molly finishes in 3rd or worse, and Carissa finishes in 5th or worse. She could also Win the Title if she finishes as the Runner Up, depending on the rest of the field.
Erin Brooks could Win the Title if she Wins Pipe, Molly finishes in 5th or worse, and Carissa finishes in 9th or worse. She could also Win the Title if she finishes as Runner Up, depending on the rest of the field.
If Caity Simmers, Carissa Moore, or Molly Picklum win Pipeline, they Win the World Title.
Obviously there are a ton of scenarios that can happen between then, but the key placements to know are as follows:
Carissa could Win the Title finishing as low as 9th place, depending on what happens with the field.
Molly & Caity could Win the Title finishing as low as 5th place, depending on what happens with the field.
Now, aside from the Title race, as exciting as it is, there is another race that is nearly just as intriguing – the requalification race. This event will see the entire CT field from 2026 rejoin the top seeds. The likes of Barron Mamiya, Crosby Colapinto, Rio Waida, Eli Hanneman, Ramzi Boukhiam and company will be looking to play big time spoilers, as well as shore up a slot on next year’s Tour.
A few surfers who were in the postseason are still at risk of falling off, despite the extra two event chances at improving their points rankings. From Jake Marshall in 22nd, All the way up to Seth Moniz at 14th is the group that could be considered ‘at risk’. That means Liam O’Brien (13th) and the surfers ranked above him are safe and calculated as locked in for next year’s CT.
Seth(14) and Connor O’Leary(15) can save their CT spot with a 17th place (Round 3 finish).
Cole Houshmand(16), Marco Mignot(17) and Filipe Toledo(19) can save their CT spot with a 9th place (Round of 16 finish).
Callum Robson(20) can save his CT spot with a 5th place (QuarterFinal finish).
Joao Chianca(21) can save his CT spot with a 3rd place (SemiFinal finish).
Finally, Jake Marshall(22) can save his CT spot with a 2nd place (Runner Up finish).
The 18th ranked surfer, Morgan Ciblic, is expected to be missing Pipeline after fracturing his tibia and rupturing his syndesmosis(?) in Portugal.
Now, from the outside in. These surfers are currently sitting outside of the cutline, and here’s what they could do at Pipe to solidify a spot on next years Tour.
Barron Mamiya(23) can lock himself a spot with a 2nd place finish or better.
Crosby Colapinto(24), Mateus Herdy(25) and Rio Waida(26) can lock a spot with a Win.
Ramzi(29), Joel Vaughan(30), Eli Hanneman(31), and Luke Thompson(32) would need to Win the event, and get some help – meaning surfers above them would need to lose early.
Unfortunately, Oscar Berry in 35th can not requalify via the CT. On the bright side for Oscar, I will say that his chances of getting back on Tour via the Challenger Series are looking pretty good. He’s currently in 12th with the Top 10 qualifying, and there are 2 double qualifiers (CT guys) sitting above him on the rankings in Cole Houshmand and Jake Marshall.
The window for the last International QS event, which is worth 6,000 points, is scheduled to Open in just 2 days – the Taiwan Open Of Surfing. There are important points banking in this contest, so we’ll be keeping up with this one daily.
Also worth noting, currently ongoing around the World in competitive surfing is the HTA Haleiwa Pro, as well as the ISA World Surfing Games at Punta Rocas in Peru – the latter of which is an Olympic qualifier. There is some great talent surfing in both events. So although the CT has a nice couple weeks break, there is a lot of contest surfing to keep up with.
World Champion soon, Triple Crown back in action, Olympic Qualifications – exciting times in surfing right now. I’m fired up for it. We’ll be talking soon.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield