“I’ve seen bigger waves in a toilet.”
It’s that time of year again! The most hotly debated contest of the WSL’s entire existence is upon us. Not only is this event back at a wave pool, this one is located in Abu Dhabi, an area where human rights are held precariously. It is such a controversy that there’s an entire subreddit of surfers who are boycotting the event. They’re even making merch about boycotting the event! What a time to be alive.
Anyways. I’m still in two fantasy surf leagues, both with some money on the line. Of course I’ll be watching. Not to mention, I want to see this pool in action. The last time they ran a pool event (2023), I thought the night session was actually pretty cool to watch. Looked hard to surf; entertaining nonetheless. So, that being said, let’s get into a preview. Maybe you can pick some stuff from here to fine tune your fantasy squad.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about writing previews in the past couple of years, it’s to keep shit as vague as possible. My predictions are laughably erroneous, 9 times out of 10. I’ve made a mental note to stick to data, if possible. So I’ll present you with that. Have a look.
4 CT events at Kelly’s Ranch
2 Regular foot winners
2 Goofy foot winners
2 Regular foot runner up
2 Goofy foot runner up
3rd place finishes
7 of 8 Regular foot
5th place finishes
9 of 16 Regular foot
7 of 16 Goofy foot
As far as wins go, we’ve got a 50/50 Regular/Goofy split.
Runner up is the same.
3rd place is dominated by Regular foots – 87.5%.
5th place is nearly back to even.
Let’s look at each surfer’s individual numbers.
First and foremost, there are a handful of surfers with no CT experience in a pool. That list is:
Jake Marshall
George Pittar
Al Cleland
Joel Vaughan
Marco Mignot
Ramzi Boukhiam
Edgard Groggia
Jackson Bunch
Alejo Muniz
Sammy Pupo
Imai deVault
That’s at least ⅓ of the field, inexperienced. Let’s see if that comes into play.
Now, for the rest we’ll just start at the top of the rankings. As a side note, these are all weighted averages. If a surfer has been in the 2019 Ranch event, say they surfed 6 waves, they have an average for that event. Then maybe they surfed in the 2021 event, they surfed 8 waves, they have an average for that event. I took those 2 averages, and averaged those. I did not grab each individual wave. Okay, here we go.
Barron Mamiya
2 events
11.70 Heat Average
5.10 Wave Average
LeoFio
2 events
13.87 Heat Average
6.38 Wave Average
Ian Gouviea
1 event
14.33 Heat Average
5.14 Wave Average
Italo
4 events
14.43 Heat Average
6.25 Wave Average
Miguel Pupo
2 events
13.78 Heat Average
5.45 Wave Average
Kanoa
4 events
14.51 Heat Average
6.46 Wave Average
Seth Moniz
2 events
13.16 Heat Average
5.83 Wave Average
Filipe
4 events
16.15 Heat Average
6.56 Wave Average
Ethan Ewing
2 events
14.44 Heat Average
6.23 Wave Average
Joao Chianca
1 event
10.67 Heat Average
4.74 Wave Average
Jack Robinson
2 events
8.82 Heat Average
3.41 Wave Average
Jordy Smith
3 events
13.53 Heat Average
5.84 Wave Average
Connor O’Leary
3 events
11.50 Heat Average
5.54 Wave Average
Matt McGillivray
2 events
8.77 Heat Average
3.80 Wave Average
LOB
2 events
10.25 Heat Average
4.02 Wave Average
Rio Waida
1 event
8.72 Heat Average
4.87 Wave Average
R.Cal
3 events
11.01 Heat Average
4.01 Wave Average
Griffin Colapinto
4 events
14.90 Heat Average
5.84 Wave Average
Cole Houshmand
1 event
9.54 Heat Average
5.76 Wave Average
Deivid Silva
2 events
12.97 Heat Average
5.26 Wave Average
Ian Gentil
1 event
12.17 Heat Average
4.86 Wave Average
Yago Dora
4 events
14.42 Heat Average
5.94 Wave Average
Here are a few notable results I am looking at –
Filipe – never finished worse than 3rd
Yago – 9th (2018), every other year 5th
Griffin – 13th (2018), 3rd, 3rd, win
Kelly – 3rd (2018) 5th (2021)
Ethan – 5th (2021) 3rd (2023)
And here are the official past years results of the Surf Ranch events
2018 –
Winner – Medina
Runner Up – Filipe
3rd – Kelly, Kanoa
5th – Owen Wright, Julian Wilson, Seabass, Miggy Pupo
2019 –
Winner – Medina
Runner Up – Filipe
3rd – Owen Wright, Griffin
5th – Julian WIlson, Yago, Ace Buchan, Jordy
2021 –
Winner – Filipe
Runner Up – Medina
3rd – Kanoa, Griffin
5th – Adriano, Yago, Ethan Ewing, Kelly
2023 –
Winner – Griffin
Runner Up – Italo
3rd – Filipe, Ethan Ewing
5th – Yago, LeoFio, Medina, Joao
So, there you go. That’s my preview now. None of my opinions, no predictions, I’ll save all of that. I am simply giving you the same info that I used to select my fantasy team.
I’ll share my team as soon as the event is underway and the teams are locked. I don’t want Nathan stealing my team again.
Good luck.
-hwilsin
-Drew Stanfield