EDITOR’S NOTE: I have recently been informed that I have misinformed you all. This post is now edited. Originally in this write up I had only 10 surfers getting cut, bringing the roster to 24 after the MYC. In actuality, 12 surfers will be cut, and 22 will compete for a chance at a World Title. I have updated the predictions, and had to make the tough decision to figuratively cut two more surfers, without any reason. Have another scroll through to find out who was given the insignificant, imaginative axe.
Counting down the days now. The long awaited return of the World Surf League’s crowned jewel, The Championship Tour. WIth the ‘rookie’ predictions out of the way, let’s have a small chat about what will happen with the remaining 24 surfers who adorn the roster. Keep in mind I already have 7 picked out whom I have predicted to make the cut. Now, starting from the bottom:
JACKSON BAKER – Oh, how Jacko won our hearts over last year. The pink boards in honor of his mother, the floaty in the lineup at Teahupoo, the early beers, not to mention his forehand rail gouge, the Aussie’s got a lot to like. He’s truly got a shot to make the cut. I really believe in the tight group they’ve got going on between himself, Connor O’Leary, and Callum Robson.
Prediction: I wouldn’t put my house on it, but I’ll say yes, he gets the job done. He’ll see results at Sunset and Margs, just as you’d imagine. He’s got the game to win Bells too.
SETH MONIZ – Not sure exactly what, but something happened to Seth early on last year. After leaving Hawaii, he advanced through exactly 1 round, though he was injured for the first 3 events of the back half. Everyone knows this kid has what it takes to win some contests, and I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he did make a Final 5. Can he put his talent to show with a rashie on?
Prediction: Seth has a big start to the year and solidifies himself for the back half early. He might struggle in Australia, but he’ll be around for the back half. Watch him in Portugal.
JADSON ANDRE – 11. Eleven times Jaddy has competed in the WSL’s Pipe contest and not until 2021 had he cracked better than a 13th place. He’s still never made the QF’s. Surfed well at Sunset, Semi’s at the Vans World Cup in 2016 & 2018, as well as 9th place finish last year. In 2010 he finished 9th in Portugal, in 9 other tries, nothing better than 13th. Made QF’s and two 9ths at Bells. Couple of 9ths at Margaret Rivers. There’s his stats.
Prediction: I’m going to make another terribly rough estimate (as with this entire post), but I believe 9th place through the first 5 contests would pretty easily get you through the cut. With that said, I believe Jaddy falls off this year. Don’t be too hurt, we all know he’ll be right back at the top of 2024.
KOLOHE ANDINO – Has it ever felt more like a “Make Or Break” year for any surfer? You like that WSL? I hate myself for that. Anyways, Kolohe needs to show us something this year. And by something I mean he needs to win a damn contest. Looking across the first 5 event locations too, he has the talent to do it at any one of them. I have no more excuses for him. Get it done, or maybe start looking the way of Simpo; Team USA’s new Assistant Coach.
Prediction: I want to say we’ll see the fire in the belly of the beast. But, that would be a lie. It pains me to say, but I think this is the year Brother falls off. I think he’s got bigger, more important things to worry about now. He’s a married father. He just released an insane project last year, and seeing how much fun (and, successful?) that was, he may have garnered new interests.
JAKE MARSHALL – Jake Marshall beat John at Sunset last year. That’s right. Jake Marshall had a 1.50 heat total at pumping Pipe against Slater. Jake Marshall advanced through a heat at CRANKING Teahupoo with a 2.43 heat total. He lost the next heat with a 2.40 total. Jake Marshall lost at G-Land with a 2.23 heat total. Jake Marshall will shock the land if he makes the cut again this year.
Prediction: No.
NAT YOUNG – One of the more consistent surfers of the last year. Four 17th’s, five 9th place results, and one Quarterfinal. Consistently in the middle of the pack. Like I said, the American Ace Buchan. Nat has already proven himself on tour; 3 Finals, 3 Semi’s and 4 Quarterfinal results in his 6 full years on tour (1 year as injury replacement). Last year he was just regaining his footing, watch for the leap.
Prediction: Yep. He gets through. He can win an event this year.
BARRON MAMIYA – One of the hardest surfers to predict. Barron obviously won Sunset as a wildcard, and then didn’t make it past the Round of 16 for the rest of the year. The kids got explosive talent and is no stranger to waves of consequence. The year of experience should help him out, but there’s really no telling. Best bet is to say he’ll have a couple of solid results early on in Hawaii.
Prediction: On first thought I had Barron getting through. Really thinking it over, if he doesn’t land a keeper result at home in Hawaii, he could be in trouble. I’m going to have to say no, he does not make the cut.
KELLY SLATER – You might want to look away for this one. As the way with the phrase G.O.A.T, as well as his fellow GOAT Tom Brady, Mr. Robert Kelly Slater will be sent packing early this year. Banished. Will this be the end of his hopes and dreams of a 12th World Title? Is he only still on the CT to try and gain an Olympic slot? Does he no-show any and every contest after Pipe? Time will tell.
Prediction: The year we’ve all been waiting for. It will be hard to see this go down on the front half of the cut. It would be a shame to not see him out at Teahupoo if it were cranking, giving a nice shake of the tree right before the Finals at Lowers. It’s really hard to foresee him keeping up with the talent of the kids today in waves that are anything less than cooking, at any of the event venues. Even with J-Bay and Bells, I wouldn’t put money on Slater winning either of those contests in any conditions. The Woz will surely keep a couple wildcards open for him, waiting for the Nod from the King. Savor the first few comps we get to watch him. You could be witnessing The End.
JORDY SMITH – I said it last year, and for that simple, silly reason I will stick by it. Jordy’s gonna be the shocker to get cut this year. I will not divulge too deeply into this, because it’s pretty unrealistic, though I could use the same excuse as Kolohe; I was just recently informed Jordy has a new young baby. New interests and responsibilities beckon. Jordy rips though and I think he always has that fire under his arse to win. The entire front half suits him, granted with some swell. He’s made the finals, but never won in Portugal 3 times. At Bells he’s got a win, a runner up, three 3rds, and 3 QF’s. Margs is 5 QF’s and a runner up. Won the Vans World Cup at Sunset in 2016. Agh, I said I wasn’t getting into it. But yeah, for shits and giggles, he won’t make the cut.
Prediction: Read above.
MATT McGILLIVRAY – Maybe the surprise of the Tour last year, aside from CalRob. After the cut, Matty Ice saw Quarters at G-Land and Teahupoo. Not very anticipated from a kid hailing out of Jeffrey’s Bay. He got edged by Jordy at Pipe with no backup score, not for lack of effort. Portugal wasn’t a good look for him, not bagging a score even in the 4’s. Bells he also struggled, but you’ll remember this was the event made famous by Conner Coffin for its terrible conditions early on. I like his odds this year. He’s coming into this year with some momentum.
Prediction: He gets through. Might we expect a bit too much from this kid? I don’t think so. Not sure if he’s quite Title Threat material, he’s definitely looked more confident than LeoFio. Little resemblance of a Fredrico Morais as far as Tour Status.
YAGO DORA – This is the farkin year for Yago. Last 3 times he competed at Pipe he got 3rd (Volcom Pipe Pro 2020), 5th (CT 2019), and 5th (CT 2019). Hasn’t had any keeper results at the other 4 venues of the front half, however, similar to McGillivray, he’s coming in with momentum. Two 3rd’s and a 5th to close out the year last year. He is another freakish talent like R.Cal, though I feel like Yago has a bit more competition savvy.
Prediction: He makes the cut and has a shot at making the Final 5.
GABRIEL MEDINA – Is the urge to win still there? He’s been through a lot the past few years. Marriage, divorce, injury, surgery, etc. Remember, the last we’ve seen of Medina, post-op, he waxed the entire CS field in Brazil for his first major win in his home country. I’d say he still wants it. Barring anything out of the ordinary, it’s not a matter of whether he makes the cut or not, it’s a question of how high up will he sit at the turn?
Prediction: Of course he makes the cut. How many wins will he have by then?
JOHN JOHN FLORENCE – Will we finally get the CT race we’ve all been longing for since 2017? A healthy John versus a healthy Medina, with all of these fresh new faces in the mix? One can dream. JJF, similar to Medina, absolutely dominated in his return to competition on home turf, winning his second consecutive Haleiwa Challenger Series event in December. He did not compete in the Vans Pipe Masters, citing “taking time off to recharge and focus on the 2023 World Tour”. Fingers crossed for a clean year for everyone.
Prediction: Another no doubter.
CALLUM ROBSON – What a fucking year for the kid. And what a likable dude as well. Donating to his hometown of Evans Head after the devastating floods, while he had no major supporting sponsor, was a class act. One 17th on the front half, and two on the back, the rest keeper results, including a runner up finish at Bells. That’s like one bogey on the front 9, with a birdie, and two on the back. I’d call that a solid round of golf. Bet you can’t do it again.
Prediction: Gonna be close for CalRob. The working class surfer, the daily grinder, the hometown hero is going to need some luck on his side this year. A repeat performance is unlikely, and I’m going to say he falls off mid-year. I believe he’s right back next year.
SAMUEL PUPO – This guy is one to watch. If not this year, he has the potential to be a Title Threat in years to come. Exactly the same results as Callum last year, they tied in points and standings. Sammy really has the tools to surf like Filipe, but he’ll also send it under a ledge – 5th place at Pipe and 9th at Chopes. He’ll be the leader of the Brazilian Storm 2 or 3.0, wherever we are.
Prediction: Yeah he’s there. Not sure if he wins an event this year, but his consistency will land him top 10 again. He holds the potential for greatness.
CONNOR O’LEARY – Connor really came into his own last year with a 9th place finish. This kid didn’t have a sticker on his board a couple years ago. He only lost in R32 twice, made a semi and two QF’s. He’s a very well rounded surfer, really excelling on performance lefts – 2nd OK Fiji Pro 2017, and 3rd at last year’s Quiksilver G-Land Pro. He hasn’t fared well at any of the first 5 event venues though. His semi-final finish after the mid-year cut last year propelled him through a strong second half, two 9ths and two 5ths, which will propel him through a strong first half this year.
Prediction: I think he makes it. Seems like a fitting middle of the road character for the tour. Him and Nat Young could spark up a dueling goofy foot rivalry.
CAIO IBELLI – Coming off the best year of his career, one in which he started as an Injury Replacement, Mr. Ibelli found himself 3 slots away from a day at Lowers. One could say he did not spoil his opportunity. He’s had success at each stop; Semi at Pipe, Semi at Sunset, Semi in Portugal, Final at Bells, and a Semi at Margs, spread throughout his career. Imagine the potential if he brought it all together – a 3rd, 4th place finish at Lowers? Not quite maxing out the talent scale, Caio’s always gotten by on hard work and shrewdness. Unfortunately, that will not be enough this year.
Prediction: Sorry my French friend. It’s a no from me.
GRIFFIN COLAPINTO – Two wins, two quarterfinals, and no Finals Finals. Griff’s four 17th’s (R32 loss) came back to bite him in the arse. “Long – term consistency trumps short – term intensity,” Take that Bruce Lee quote my friend. A slow start in Hawaii before his maiden victory in Portugal. Consecutive Quarter Finals before winning again in El Salvador. Everyone knows he’s got the talent to compete for a Title at his homebreak Lowers. He’s got solid experience across the tour, and has bagged results everywhere except Bells – 3rd Pipe 2019, Back-to-back Finals @ Vans Pro Sunset Beach 2017 & 2018, Win last year Portugal, 3rd and 5th at Margs. With a possible venue change in the future, look for him to give a good run at a top 5 finish to get into this year’s Finals Day.
Prediction: Yes. Griffin easily makes the cut.
MIGUEL PUPO – I previously covered how close Miggy was to making the Finals last year. This will be his 11th year on tour. Another fellow who might not match the talent levels of the elite, the older Pupo brother will fill the role of the veteran Brazilian journeyman that will be left behind when Jaddy falls off tour for 5 months. Can he improve his performance from last year? I’m not so sure, but he’ll be safely above the cut line. He’s surfed enough heats to know how to get the job done, though he can’t be too loose around this crop of kids, including his brother.
Prediction: He makes the cut. Could be close though. Hadn’t had a result at Bells until last year. Has not cracked over 9th at Margs. Portugal is his strong zone. Might count on a result at Pipe.
KANOA IGARASHI – Watching Kanoa make the top 5 last year just felt fitting. Like you finally grew into that shirt you got for Christmas last year. The actual Finals Day was a bit of a disappointment, but we all saw & heard the tough time he was going through personally. I’m hoping he has turned around and used that moment as a growing stepping stone. He’s now logged 5 full years on tour, plus the COVID shortened year. In the last 28 CT contests (3 years), Kanoa has: a win, a runner up, 3 semi’s, and 10 quarters. In the last three years, 54% of the contests Kanoa surfs in he makes the Quarters or better. Kids no joke. He beat Italo and Kelly Slater out at Pipe. Took out Ewing and Jack Robbo at Sunset last year. He beat Filipe in Portugal. Margs is the one location he has not had a keeper; never better than a 9th place finish. Couple of mistakes to be avoided and he could go into Finals Day ranked #1.
Prediction: Kanoa makes it. I wonder if he can hang with John and Medina. Can he reach that level?
ETHAN EWING – Your favorite surfers new favorite surfer. He really took over our little world with his stylish surfing and performances. What a difference 5 years makes huh? Oh, did we all forget he fell off tour once before, in 2017 when he stunk up the joint with six 25th’s (last place) and five 13th’s? If I remember correctly, there were flashes of his smooth, powerful rail game, but nowhere near the polished version we’ve witnessed of late. In different conditions at Lowers for Finals Day, he could have been a large favorite over Italo. The clips he was producing before the event started were the fan favorite. Not sure if he has as successful of a year, but his surfing is in a place where he will be safe for some time to come.
Prediction: Yep, no surprise here.
JACK ROBINSON – As with Ewing, it felt like both these Australians were too strong, too bulky, too heavy for the waves that fateful day in San Clemente. Fuck imagine that day out at cranking J-Bay. I know everyone wants the split peak or the option for a left and right, but if that’s the case have it over multiple days, multiple locations? Anyways, taking away from Jack’s shine. Yeah, he’ll be there for the back half. No shocker. He could win Pipe, Sunset, or Margs, with an outside shot at Portugal if it’s cranking.
Prediction: Yeah.
ITALO FERREIRA – It’s pretty wild to look back now and think that Italo has been kind of on cruise control since his World Title year, 2019. Lots of talks about his Social Media stuff, his repetitive style and tricks, his hair, all of it. And yet last year finishing runner up after a tremendous run on Finals Day. He had a cracker of a year as well, seven results in the Quarters or better. He’s got something to prove at Sunset, and Teahupoo. And definitely something to prove at the Wave Pool – this is another story in itself. He’s made the Semi’s or better at every other event location.
Prediction: Obviously yes. With his “bad” result last year, in the past, I would expect Italo to really work at getting better out at Sunset. I’m unsure if he still possesses the same fire. I wonder how he will go there this year.
FILIPE TOLEDO – Hear me out. I am more sure of the past 4 surfers making the cut than I am Filipe. And if you think about it, it makes a bit of sense. A case could be made to make you believe Filipe might not make the cut. Do you think he’s been practicing, spending hours improving out at Pipe? Does he want that? Does Sunset seem like a wave to fit Filipe’s style? I can see early losses at both now. Moving on, he’s won out at Portugal but he’s also lost the first round. Would be a big task and a massive upset by someone. Bells is probably his strong suit, though one would not guess so. The flat, shifty, unpredictable wave that is Bells would seemingly through the light footed Brazilian for a loop. He’s never lost in the first round, and he’s won, came runner up, and made 3 quarters. Wonder how many of those results came at Winkipop (does it matter)? Lastly, Margs. A last place finish, a win, a semi, a R32 loss; overall, a mixed bag. I think it depends on the swell. Anything that has some juice that is not located over sand, Filipe will struggle. You notice that? He’ll charge big Brazil and big Portugal. Not big Margs. Here’s to hoping for big waves.
Prediction: One can dream.
And there we have it. A full list of predictions for the front half of the year. Who will make the cut and who won’t. Strong suits and weaknesses. Possibilities. Stats. Think we ran through it all, as swift as it was. Here’s a tally of what we’re looking at:
Being Cut –
Michael Rodrigues, Liam O’Brien*, Ramzi, Rio Waida, Jaddy, Kolohe, Jake Marshall, Barron Mamiya, Kelly, Jordy, Callum Robson, Caio Ibelli
*I originally had Liam making the cut here, as well as in the Qualifiers article. Since I farked this article up and didn’t have enough people getting cut, I had to add two more surfers. LOB unfortunately ended up on the unfavorable side of my phony cut line. If it makes the picture any clearer, one had to be a ‘rookie’ and it was between him and Leo, the latter getting the nod due to experience.
Not Cut –
Filipe, Italo, JackRobbo, Ewing, Kanoa, Miggy Pupo, Griffin, O’Leary, Sammy Pupo, John John, Medina, Yago, McGillivray, Nat Young, Seth Moniz, Jacko Baker, LeoFio, Ryan Callinan, Maxime Huscenot, Ian Gentil, Joao, Zeke Lau
Extra Early Final 5 Forecast, in no order:
Kanoa
John John
Griffin
Gabby
Yago
Outside chance: Seth Moniz
Darkhorse: Ian Gentil
We will check back in on these after we hit the cut, before the second half begins. Probably going to be a rough look for myself. Until then, get your fantasy lineups in. Read your Pipe Predictions. And cheers to a new year of CT surfing.
-hwilsin
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