*Gasping for air in between sets*
Okay, last one. Since I gave front half predictions for the whole tour, including the Challenger Series Qualifiers, it’s now time for the final forecast – for the time being. Pipe’s waiting period will start tomorrow, running January 29th through February 10th. Let’s see what surfline says is being conjured up.
Looking like waves and wind the first 2 days, followed by decreasing swell but cleaner conditions through the week. Next weekend sees another building swell, maxing out on Sunday the 5th, with forecasted “semi-clean to clean conditions”. The first few days of the next week show a bunch more wind, with Tuesday and Wednesday also having some swell.
Taking an estimate, there will probably be at least one full round run in some pretty tough conditions. Personally, I would like to see them surf cleaner, smaller conditions, probably because that’s what I would rather surf. We shall see what mother nature brings.
Onto the guessing game!
…well, not so much this time. You’ll see.
There will be 4 surfers to get sent home early in the Elimination Round, earning the dreaded 33rd place. The two Wildcards for the event are Imai deVault and Josh Moniz. Here are the Round 1 Matchups:
Heat 1-
Miguel Pupo vs. Nat Young vs. Ian Gentil
Heat 2-
Kanoa Igarashi vs. Jake Marshall vs. Joao Chianca
Heat 3-
Ethan Ewing vs. Kolohe Andino vs. Liam O’Brien
Heat 4-
Jack Robinson vs. Jadson Andre vs. Ezekiel Lau
Heat 5-
Italo Ferreira vs. Seth Moniz vs. Imaikalani deVault
Heat 6-
Filipe Toledo vs. Jackson Baker vs. Joshua Moniz
Heat 7-
Griffin Colapinto vs. Barron Mamiya vs. Michael Rodrigues
Heat 8-
Caio Ibelli vs. Kelly Slater vs. Ramzi Boukhiam
Heat 9-
Connor O’Leary vs. Jordy Smith vs. Maxime Huscenot
Heat 10-
Samuel Pupo vs. Matt McGillivray vs. Rio Waida
Heat 11-
Callum Robson vs. Yago Dora vs. Ryan Callinan
Heat 12-
John John Florence vs. Gabriel Medina vs. Leonardo Fioravanti
It’s unclear how the new rule change will work, speaking in regards to the R1 winner being rewarded for a win. From what I’ve heard, surfers are placed in 3 different brackets, so the seeding is somewhat limited, as far as how high up or down one can move.
With that being said, there are a few heats that are turning heads already. Heat 12, I’m looking at you. Wonder what Leo’s fantasy pick percentage will be? Would not be a shocker to see him fighting against an early exit. Callum Robson and Ian Gentil are both regular, facing two goofies in their heats. Don’t know if that means anything. What I do know is that since Rob Machado’s win in 2000, only 2 surfers with their right foot forward have won the CT Pipeline contest; Medina, 2018 & Italo, 2019. That’s 19 regular foot wins, to 3 goofy foot wins. Ouch. And they ask for more lefts on tour. Let’s look at some more stats:
- Since 2010 (12 Pipe CT contests), 4 times the runner up has been goofy – all 4 times being Medina. 2014, 2015, 2019, & 2021.
- Since 2010 we’ve seen 11 goofies versus 31 regulars in the Semi’s. Thats 26% of Semi-finalists being goofy. Of those 11, Medina has made Semi’s or better 5 times.
- An Australian hasn’t won at Pipe since Julian Wilson in 2014.
- Looking at just those numbers, it’s a tough look if your name is Connor O’Leary or Ryan Callinan. Sorry boys.
How about some individual numbers:
- Filipe has made QF’s once in 9 tries, 2014. He’s lost in his first heat 4 times, whether that was R2 or R3.
- While JackRobbo won the 2019 Volcom Pipe Pro, he’s yet to crack the QF’s of the Championship Tour Pipe contest in 4 attempts.
- Kanoa has back-to-back QF’s at Pipe. His first two years competing out there on Tour he bagged a 2nd and a 3rd. He’s been quite a surprising performer out there. 6 entries, 4 finals day appearances.
- John has lost in his first heat only three times at Pipe, to 19 WSL contest entries; 2012 to Sebastian Ziets, Round 3, 2014 Volcom Pipe Pro, Round 3, and 2018 Volcom Pipe Pro, Round 4. He’s won 5 times, got 2nd twice, made 6 Quarters, and Semi’s once.
- Jordy is always looked at as a favorite out at Pipe, but this consensus looks a little misconstrued. In 11 goes, he’s only cracked the Quarters 4 times, getting through to Semi’s only 1 of those 4.
- Hometown kids Barron Mamiya & Seth Moniz have each made a final at the Volcom Pipe Pro QS event. Seth also obviously made the Final of the CT event last year against Slater.
- Not seeing much success yet, Ian Gentil has competed out at the Banzai 9 times. This jersey experience could be an advantage over surfers who have much less time donning a jersey in the open lineup at Pipe.
- These surfers are inexperienced in contests out at Pipe: Rio Waida (0), Jake Marshall (1), Sammy Pupo (1), Ramzi (1), Jacko Baker (1), Callum Robson (1), Liam O’Brien (2),
- Between the USA’s past wunderkinds Nat Young and Kolohe Andino, they have 19 combined Pipe appearances. Kolohe has made the semi’s twice: 2013 Volcom Pipe Pro, 2016 Billabong Pipe Masters. Kolohe has lost his first heat 7 of 13, Nat has lost first heat 2 of 6.
- Zeke Lau has competed 13 times in WSL Pipeline contests, making the semi’s once, 2015 Volcom Pipe Pro.
- Yago had back-to-back QF showings in 2018 & 2019, as well as a Finals Appearance in the 2020 Volcom Pipe Pro.
- Joao Chianca has 2 entries into Pipe, and he’s got runner up in one of those; 2020 Volcom Pipe Pro.
- Griffin has seen glimpses of success, 2017 Volcom Pipe Pro final, and 2019 Billabong Pipe Masters Semi.
- Ethan Ewing has made it through a total of 1 heat in 3 tries on the CT at Pipe; 2017 Round 2 against Owen Wright. A better result here would be a dangerous prospect for the rest of the field.
- Italo has lost his first heat 3 times. He’s got a win, a semi, and a quarters in 7 events.
- Miguel Pupo has competed 10 times, with a semi last year and a QF in 2013.
- Last but not least, Mr. Slater. Not much to say here. Guys won out there 8 times.
This write up is an example of my brain; scrambled. Lot of shit in there. Very mixed up and unorganized. I’ll find a better way to format that throughout the year. Maybe just go in order of rankings or something, just seems kinda boring. Anyways, what did you take from all of that? Anything? Personally, I’ve got a couple of things I’m thinking about.
- If your name is not Medina or Ferreira, and your goofy foot, good luck.
- With the forecast, it will not be a picture-perfect Pipeline. Keep this in mind.
- I’m looking for people with experience, time in the water at Pipe, and past success. We should see a couple different moods throughout the event.
Here’s my fantasy team.
Couple of tough choices in Tier B. It was a close choice between Yago, Barron, Seth, and McGillivray. I felt Matty Ice held the lowest potential in junky waves. Seth, Barron and Yago all hold a bit of flair and progression up their sleeve, which could come into play, but Matt might have the power advantage. If the waves do happen to turn on, I could regret this decision.
I didn’t even touch on the wildcards for this event, Josh Moniz or Imai deVault. That was not an accident. Josh is coming off a couple of injuries, as well as surfing in The Eddie, and I think he might be on an empty tank for this event. Imai really struggled in the event last year, losing in the Elimination Round, and not getting a wave even over a 1 point ride in the Opening Round. This could be a huge miss, but I don’t see anything significant coming from them. The Woz took away any real incentive to want to do good, other than a paycheck. The wildcards don’t receive any points anyways.
To make some predictions now, I will keep it simple. I think either John or Gabby will win this event. Italo’s got a shot as well, but I’ve got a feeling the waves and conditions will not be the main event of the start of the season. We have all been waiting for this storyline, this rivalry to be rekindled. And as if by the flick of a wrist (you can’t script this!), we just might get it. My darkhorse pick to win this event is Yago.
With that I bid you farewell, and goodluck. Have a good fantasy season, enjoy the show, get some waves, sayonara, see you later, adios, that’s all. Cheers to the new CT year.
hwilsin