K.O.B

Even if somehow, someway, Flip ends up losing in his one heat at Lowers in September, letting the World Title slip away, he is now the undisputed champion and King Of Brazil. He’s won the last 3 CT events to go down there, and 4 of the total 8 he’s surfed in (2015, ‘18, ‘19, & ‘22). He’s had 15 excellent heats (16 points or over) in 8 tries. To compare, John has 9 excellent heats in 6 tries, being the next closest. Medina has 7 excellent heats in 9 events, and Italo has 1 in 5 events. Nobody can match Fil’s scoring potential out there. This comp is his to lose from the jump, every year. 

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Next contest up is J-Bay, with the waiting period opening exactly two weeks from today, July 12th. Guess what Filipe has done there? His first two years competing at Jeffrey’s on the CT he was waxed by fellow countryman Alejo Muniz in back-to-back years (2014 & 2015), finishing 25th and then 13th. Since, his results are as follows, starting with 2016 – 5th, 1st, 1st, and 3rd. He’s had 16 excellent heats in SA through 6 events. Jordy has 15 excellent heats (1 perfect 20) in 8 events at home at J-Bay, so put that in perspective. Jordy & Filipe are tied with 2 event wins a piece here.

Medina has gone under the knife and subsequently withdrawn from J-Bay. This wraps up his half year campaign to try and make the final 5 in 2022. We are assuming John will not make it to SA either. Will Slater make it over? Not sure if he would be a legit threat to Filipe anyways. The only guaranteed contenders I see will be Kanoa, and Jordy. 

I’d like to see Jordy win this event, with a possible last minute shot to make the top 5 at Chopes. After that, whether he makes the top 5 or not, I’d also like to see him hang it up. I’m not sure if he’s got what it takes to win the title at this point in his career, and it feels like he’s come to that realization himself. I’d much rather see him go out honorably, rather than to be a victim of next year’s cutline. 

One would imagine Ewing should have a run at J-Bay as well. ~enter something about his style matching the wave so well, same thing you have or will read on every other forecast~

Other candidates to get a nice result would be Jacko Baker, Callum Robson, and possibly McGillivray? Local knowledge? Griffin is gonna need a result. I’m interested to see how Jack Robinson fares on the walls of Jeffreys Bay. 

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Here comes the IF, THEN game.

If Filipe makes the quarters at J-Bay, he is guaranteed the 1 or 2 spot at Lowers, as Robbo would be the only surfer able to catch him. Let’s say the final comes down to Robbo and Toledo, with Jack winning. He would still need Filipe to lose in the elimination round at Chopes, and win the event at Chopes to pass Flip. 

My point being, Filipe is not gonna lose before the quarters in South Africa. Ideal scenario for him, he takes another win, or makes the final, with Jack bowing out before the final. Then, with the number one seed being locked up, he doesn’t even show up to Chopes. He goes home and relaxes his brain and body, trains at Lowers for an extra month, and prepares for his first World Title. 

I honestly wish we could just give him the trophy once he solidifies the #1 spot after this next event. It would be SUCH a tragedy to see anything weird happen at, or before Lowers. I don’t even like putting those words in the air, but it’s just this eerie feeling, yaknow? That is one of the driving thoughts behind my scenario of Fil skipping out on Teahupoo, and don’t you think for one second that idea hasn’t already crossed his mind. 

In my eyes, he has earned the trophy this year. He’s made the final more times than he hasn’t – 5 finals, and 3 losses in R16. Italo made 5 finals and won the Title in 2019. Before that, Kelly made 5 finals in 2011 and won the trophy by a landslide, 12,000 points. Kelly actually made 6 finals in 2010 as well, winning the Title by no less than 16,000 points. Would love to see Filipe match that 6th final here at J-Bay, and then not even have to show up to his kryptonite in Teahupoo.

Congratulations Filipe, you animal. Keep the foot on the gas pedal. In the words of our beloved ELo, “now is not the time to change course”. 

-hwilsin