QUALIFIED

Every year we are graced with a crop of fresh new faces joining the highest level of competition that is known as the Championship Tour. A chance at a World Title is a tantalizing prospect to the rookie class each year. More than likely these young, accomplished athletes come off a bit tense, setting their goals a rung or two below the average tour surfer. The Medina effect – winning two events in his rookie year – is very rare indeed.

Last year we did get to enjoy two standout greenhorns prevail, tying at 10th place with the exact same point total at the end of the year; Sammy Pupo and Callum Robson. Each of these surfers bagged a 2nd place result, along with two Quarter Final finishes each. Impressive work to make a final in your debut season. Per my predictions, one of these two will have a follow-up year to behold. The other will not fare so well. 

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Speaking of predictions, I just had a look back at my piece about the rookie class last year. I was pretty damn bad. Well off the mark for 5 guys: 

Zeke Lau would make the cut – WRONG

Imai deVault picked for Rookie Of The Year – WRONG

Jake Marshall would not make the cut – WRONG

Jacko Baker would not make the cut – WRONG

Sammy Pupo would have a throwaway at Pipe – WRONG

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I happened to (luckily) hit a few (3) right as well:

Nat Young would make the cut, becoming USA’s version of Ace Buchan – CORRECT

Connor O’Leary “Don’t be shocked at a top 10 finish.” – He finished 9th

Joao Chianca I thought would come out of the gates hot at Pipeline – while he only finished 9th, his showing there and his heat against JJF is still talked about.

Lastly, Cali Munoz and Liam O’Brien were both injured at the top of the year, we can wipe those. So, since I clearly don’t know shit, let’s do it again this year..

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A little bit different for 2023 though, we have 6 surfers REjoining the CT – as in they have all been here before. We’ll start with them:

Leonardo Fioravanti – Top CS qualifier. Has been on tour previously for 3 “full” years – though he was injured in 2019 for 5 contests, and 2021 was a shortened year due to COVID. His best result through those years are two semi-final finishes – France in 2019 and Mexico 2021. Fell off tour at the mid-year cut last year and proceeded to drop one of Stab’s Edit Of The Year nominees, as well as cruising to the top finish of the CS with the most consistent year among competitors. It’s yet to be seen if LeoFio can kick his surfing into full gear on the CT. He’s been a ‘prodigy’ if you will, on the scene since a grom with Kanoa, JackRobbo and the like. 

Prediction: He makes the cut this time around. He’s here to stay. For a couple years. Something about him reminds me of Bede Durbidge. I think we see a surprisingly strong result at Sunset to help propel him into Portugal (near home) with some momentum.

Ryan Callinan – I feel like RCal has had heavy expectations since he joined the tour the first time in 2016. Landing parts in Kai Neville’s Cluster and Lost Atlas, as well as magazine cover shots has had Ryan in a spotlight for quite some time. Some ‘free surfers’ talents don’t equate well on Tour, ie) Yadin Nicol, Dusty Payne, Mitch Coleborn, Jack Freestone, Kolohe?? Like Brother Andino, Ryan has a feeling about him that people are just waiting for him to break through. I’m hoping he follows the lead of Yago and Connor O’Leary and lands some results this year. 

Prediction: It’s going to be close for RCal. I’m going to say yes, he squeaks through based on consistency. I can’t pick an event where I can see him shining through for a series result. Pipe? Portugal? Margarets? He has made semi’s at Bells, and Quarters twice at Margs, so maybe that’s the spot. Rather not see him have to count on a result at the very end, but if he can squeeze through, the back half may suit him better. I’d like to see him really let loose at the Wave Pool. I think the first two contests in Hawaii will set the tone for his year. Keep an eye on those.

Michael Rodrigues – Back for his 3rd year on tour, this kid has what it takes to compete at this level. Even though he’s most notorious for this, he finished 15th in his rookie year, bagging two QF’s in the first 3 events. In 2019 he made Semi’s (3rd place) in Bali, so clearly he can surf with the best of them. He’s one of those guys that I can’t ever remember watching a heat of, but clearly he’s made a few. 

Prediction: I don’t know about it. He’ll need some keepers after Hawaii. Between Portugal, Bells, and Margarets River (the 3 events after Hawaii, before the cut) he’s never made a QF. The back half of the season would be better for M.Rod, but I don’t think we’ll see him there. Sorry, but I’m out.

Joao Chianca – This guy’s arguably got the most hype and the most support coming into the year. After his showings at Pipe and Bells last year, getting knocked by John John at both, the major consensus is that he’s going to have a cracker this year. After falling off tour he got off to a shaky start on the CS. He really had to make it happen coming into the halfway mark of the CS year, and he did. Stoked he’s got another shot.

Prediction: He makes it through the cut this year. With a year of experience at the same exact venues, and the new rule with seeding rewarding the R1 winner, he won’t have as rough a round.

Liam O’Brien – We all know of the unlucky injury that derailed LOB’s expected rookie year last year. After the first 2 events of the Challenger Series he was steady, earning another crack at the big leagues. It would have been a shame for him to not get an injury replacement if he had not regained his position on tour, though I’m glad he did cause that card went to Carlos Munoz.

Prediction: Yeah. Liam’s quiet and handles business. A silent killer. And he was just that close last year. Watch out for this one. Rookie of the year. 

Zeke Lau – Back again! Is this the new Jadson Andre? He just got married and has a baby due soon, so maybe a new sense of life will drive this insanely talented Hawaiian to the heights he was meant to reach. I always root for him, and it’s so fitting to see him squeak in by the skinny skin skin of his teeth. Especially when he blows up and everyone exclaims “that’s the Zeke we’ve been waiting for!”

Prediction: Big yes. Top 10 finish. He’s not a real rookie, or else running for ROY.

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Next, we have some newcomers who have been on the scene for quite some time, and now, at last reaching their potential:

Maxime Huscenot – Not one person is surprised to see Maxime here. He’s deserved this for a long time. At 30 years young he’s a rookie on tour, yet he’s had more trips around the sun than all but 5 other guys on tour – Miggy, Kelly, Jordy, Jaddy, and Nat Young. Have you seen any clips of this cat recently? He’s polished, super strong, and is not afraid to take a drop and thread a tube. While France isn’t exactly known for shallow reef breaks, Hossegor is known to get big, heavy and hollow. He’ll be fine in waves of consequence.

Prediction: He’ll be here for the back half. I expect him to prosper on tour. The waves are well suited to him, he’s well traveled and experienced, and he rips. Will be contending with Liam for Rookie of the Year.

Ramzi Boukhaim – Ramzi has never had the spotlight on him like Maxime or Ian have. Not until social media did many people know his name, and even now he may be rather unknown to the larger surf community. An absolute powerhouse, this dude will handle himself in the juice the tour has to offer. I think a large number of people will expect him to hang around for the back half.

Prediction: I am actually going to say no. He could have a result at Pipe. After that, it may come to Margies for Ramzi. I think he struggles through Sunset and Portugal. Bells will come down to the waves. But Margs will have the power to match him and could be something special to watch. 

Ian Gentil – Pretty highly touted since a grom, you can find clips of Ian ripping from age 10 and up. His name has been relatively quiet, though he’s been competing in at least one QS event every year since 2011. Former runner up at Sunset Beach, this dude can hold his own in some swell. His rail game is strong. He’s got some tricks. Another calm dude. Kids nowadays should take something from him and LOB’s mentality.

Prediction: Yup. There’s a fire inside this quiet riot. He’ll be hanging around for at least next year.

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And one complete “wildcard”, Indonesia’s first ever CT competitor:

Rio Waida – Stab’s wonderkind. For me, feels a bit small, young, & immature for the tour. Maybe due to the general age group that is on the CT nowadays, maybe due to the playful, perfect waves he grew up surfing in Indo, maybe due to the size of everyone on tour now. There is a lot to be proven here with this young kid, and a lot of eyes will be on his performance at Pipe. Sunset may be tough to wrangle for him. Portugal could land him a result before some tough waves in Bells and Margs. I’d like to see a day run at the box while he’s in the comp.

Prediction: I don’t think so. Another kid I’d like to see at the Wave Ranch Pool Surf Machine, but I’m thinking he won’t be there. I wonder how he’d fare at Chopes. El Salvador and J-Bay have potential for him. But I’m getting ahead, he won’t be there.

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Carlos Munoz has received the injury wildcard for the year from the WSL, meaning if anyone is unfortunately hurt, he will be the first replacement. I suspect he will also give the CS another run to try and earn his way back on tour full-time.

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Here’s to better luck than last year. Seven qualifiers. Seven, I’ve just predicted to be around for the back half of the year. Sheesh, what have I done? Last year 6 made it through; not a huge stretch. The 3 surfers I have falling back for another round of CS battle are Rio, Ramzi and MRod. We’ll still have 9 to add to this list. Tune in early next week for more complete guesses at what the rest of the CT field will do this year. 

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Cheers,

-hwilsin