The countdown is on – 1 Hour until the start of the Lexus Pipe Challenger. I was browsing around trying to find a surf cam (I quit paying for Surfline a while back) and it still looks dark, but I’m pretty sure it’s pumping. Looks like a proper swell. I haven’t written a prediction piece in quite some time, so I felt like throwing some darts here this morning. First, let’s have a look at The Field.
MEN
OPENING ROUND
HEAT 1
- Cody Young
- Koa Rothman
- Shayden Pacarro
- Joey Johnston
HEAT 2
- Rylan Beavers
- Makana Pang
- Kala Grace
- MaiKai Burdine
HEAT 3
- Josh Moniz
- Benji Brand
- Koa Smith
- Nalu Deodato
HEAT 4
- Zeke Lau
- Billy Kemper
- Makai McNamara
- Legend Chandler
HEAT 5
- JOB
- Mason Ho
- Eli Olson
- Lucas Godfrey
ROUND OF 80
HEAT 1
- Billy Stairmand
- Jackson Bunch
- Tully Wylie
HEAT 2
- Lucas Cassity
- Josh Kerr
HEAT 3
- Charly Quivront
- Jett Schilling
- Thomas Lindhorst
HEAT 4
- Keoni Lasa
- Joh Azuchi
- Ryan Huckabee
HEAT 5
- Imai deVault
- Afonso Antunes
- Luke Swanson
HEAT 6
- Maxime Huscenot
- Luke Tema
HEAT 7
- Riaru Itu
- Yago Dominguez
- Wesley Liete
HEAT 8
- Oliver Zietz
- Igor Moraes
- Daiki Tanaka
So if we are being completely honest, I haven’t heard of half of these guys on the Challenger. And if I were putting money on it, I would hedge my bet on behalf of the Home Court Advantage. Have a look at those damn trials! I wouldn’t mind watching Heat 5 surf for 3 hours out there. I mentioned that Wave Of The Winter is currently ongoing, and we could see some waves from this event get nominated – at least from the trials. I mean seriously, looking through the draw I picked out 4 names that I think have a shot to win – Jackson Bunch, Imai deVault, Luke Tema, and the old man Josh Kerr. Jackson and Imai are more likely to win if we are just looking on paper – younger, in their prime, at home, etc. Kerrzy is just going to be having fun, and Tema is just trying to crack the main stage. If it’s not one of them, the winner is coming out of the Trials – which I think is very likely.
The favorites would have to be exactly as you would predict – there is no tricking Pipe;
- both of the Koas (Rothman & Smith)
- Makana Pang
- Josh Moniz
- Benji Brand
- Zeke Lau
- Billy Kemper
- Anyone from Heat 5
I know, not much of a prediction. I’m taking the safe route. Look, when you start gambling you don’t want to just throw everything you have into one horse – you’ve got to spread it out. But since we’ve got our sprinkles in, I guess I’ll give a little cherry on top: ImaiKalani deVault wins. It would feel so fitting that he can’t find his feet on Tour, but with some relieved pressure and the waves cranking at home, he makes his way to a hopefully ‘signature’ win to get him jumpstarted. I absolutely love the kids’ style and I pull for him a lot, as evident from my previous event picks.
Let’s have a look at the Women’s side of the draw.
ROUND OF 48
HEAT 1
- Kirra Pinkerton
- Macy Callaghan
- Kana Nakashino
- Chesney Guinotte
HEAT 2
- Anat Lelior
- Leilani McGonagle
- Jahly Stokes
- Willow Hardy
HEAT 3
- Arena Rodriguez
- Sol Aguirre
- Keala Tomoda-Bannert
- Moana Jones Wong
HEAT 4
- Ellie Harrison
- Sanoa Dempfle-Olin
- Vaihitimahana Inso
- Zoie Zietz
HEAT 5
- Alyssa Spencer
- Nanaho Tsuzuki
- Reid Van Wagoner
- Zoe McDougall
HEAT 6
- Sophie McCulloch
- Eweleiula Wong
- Louise Lepront
- Oceanna Rogers
HEAT 7
- Sophia Medina
- Mirai Ikeda
- Anon Matsuoka
- Malia Lima
HEAT 8
- Teresa Bonvalot
- Kiara Goold
- Sierra Kerr
- Skai Suitt
Picking anyone other than Moana Jones Wong is a fool’s errand. She is the Queen of Pipeline for a reason. She will make the Finals, it’s just a matter of what the conditions are like by that point in time. If you felt like getting fancy and out of pocket, a couple of names that could be sneaky – Sierra Kerr, Kiara Goold, Teresa Bonvalot, and Zoe McDougall. I expect Alyssa Spencer to make some heats, same with Kirra Pinkerton. Basically anyone who has any familiarity out there, I expect to have a (rather large) upperhand.
So here is my ‘prediction piece’. More of a view of The Field. My winners – Imai deVault & Moana Jones Wong.
Let’s see how we go. Drop who you think wins in a comment below.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield