World Hold League strikes again. After about 7 hold calls yesterday, and finally a call off, the Corona Fiji Pro is officially underway today out at Cloudbreak. Heat 2 is in the water right now. Here are the heats:
HEAT 1-
Italo Ferreira vs. Ramzi Boukhiam vs. Leonardo Fioravanti
HEAT 2-
Jack Robinson vs. Ryan Callinan vs. Imai deVault
HEAT 3-
Griffin Colapinto vs. Barron Mamiya vs. Kelly Slater
HEAT 4-
John John Florence vs. Kanoa Igarashi vs. Tevita Gukilau
HEAT 5-
Ethan Ewing vs. Cole Houshmand vs. Seth Moniz
HEAT 6-
Yago Dora vs. Jake Marshall vs. Liam O’Brien
HEAT 7-
Jordy Smith vs. Rio Waida vs. Matt McGillivray
HEAT 8-
Gabriel Medina vs. Crosby Colapinto vs. Connor O’Leary
Here’s what my fantasy team looks like:
I think Robbo wins this thing. From what I read, today is supposed to be the best day of the entire waiting period. That means it could end up being smaller, similar conditions to G-Land last year, which Jack won. Especially when it gets a little smaller, I think judges like to see sharp, precise, powerful backhand surfing. It’s a little easier to get repetitive, but it’s also easier to get vertical, which is highly rewarded in smaller surf. To beat good backhand surfing you need airs, or a really strong rail game going forehand. Jack is also sitting at Number 4 (currently, live – since Italo surfed and won Heat 1, giving him at worst a 9th place result) on the rankings. He knows he can’t fall early. He’s got a decent lead in points, but he can still be caught.
Here’s what the Final 5 scenario looks like, thanks to @ surfstats on Instagram:
So it looks like Callinan, Ramzi, Cole, Jake Marshall, Rio Waida, and Crosby could all still qualify if they win the event. But there’s a lot that could happen. I think it all depends on what the other guys do. Medina, Jordy, and Yago have the best shots at sneaking in.
When it comes to these scenarios, I’ve previously done what-if’s. For example – IF Yago gets a 5th, he would need Jack to finish 9th or below, Griffin to finish 5th or below, etc. It’s a lot of work. The easier way to think about it, is what do the top guys need to do. What result do they need to reach to be safe from being caught?
John is locked in the 1 seat. Even if Griffin (#2 going into the event) wins, and JJF gets last, he will still be number one at Lowers.
Griffin needs a 9th.
Jack & Italo both need a 2nd place.
Ethan needs to win.
This is the sure route for the current Final 5 to stay in place. They will not fall out if they reach this result. Of course other things can happen to make it a little easier, but that’s what we are looking at for now.
Today should be interesting. It’s big but wonky. If the regular foots can survive today, I expect them to shine through the rest of the event.
Might go live at some point to commentate a couple of heats. Search hvoide on Youtube. Or maybe IG or something. I don’t know yet, tossing around the idea.
Tune in and enjoy.
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/533717/its-on-day-1-of-the-corona-fiji-pro
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield