I’m bummed we don’t get some hilarious excuse from Kelly as to why he won’t be in Brazil this year.
Ongoing Illness
Stitches in the foot
Lower back pain
Personal reasons
I wish just once he would have publicly shamed the joint. Maybe then the CT wouldn’t have to go back there every year? I know, I know – the fanbase and the environment is just about the best in the world. But, is the wave truly world class? I think Barrinha, it may be called? That right hander up the beach – that wave gets pretty good sometimes. As does Saquarema, there are just plenty of better options.
Anyways, after this event, we’ll have a pretty clear picture of the Final 5. We’ll know who needs what, possibilities, all of it. I’m really glad they lined the Tour up the way they did, with the best for last (Cloudbreak). The Woz has been blessed with waves so far this year, so let’s cross our fingers we see more swell. Will make for some intriguing drama for Finals Day at Lowers, as well as a nice hype reel for next year’s Finals Day. That’s right, surely you heard – the WSL announced Finals Day moving to Cloudbreak next year. Great news. I’ll have more of an opinion on this soon.
So, let’s get into Rio.
I’ll repeat after Crosby Colapinto, “I’m not no forecasting guru.” They are saying small for the first half, and building for the back half. Don’t shoot the messenger. Obviously we’ve already had a few lay days, so maybe it’s starting to get bigger now?
I’m not here to predict the waves anyway. What I am here to offer you is some insight into the event. Here’s what I’ve got for you.
HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE
You have to go back to 2016 to find a non-Brazilian winner – JJF. 2021 and 2020 did not hold events here, so that’s 5 total contests between now and then. Filipe won three of those. The other 2 Brazilian winners were Yago (last year) and Adriano deSouza (2017).
Since 2015, Brazil has had at least 2 men in the draw on Finals day every year – meaning in the Quarters or better. Of those 56 total Quarter Finalists, 22 were Brazilian, that’s just under 40%.
Interesting note – Medina has not won a CT here. He’s never even made the Final. His best result in a Championship Tour event at home has been a Semi. He hadn’t won a WSL event in Brazil until 2022, when he blitzed the Challenger Series field during his return from injury. Could this be the year? I’ll bet he is a popular pick among fantasy lineups.
Another goofy footer looking to get his debut victory at home – Italo Ferreira. Kinda shocking. His best result is also a Semi Final. Coming off a last place finish in El Salvador, expect to see this dude fully revved up.
That leaves us with only one Brazilian on Tour full time – last year’s winner here, and last events runner up, Yago Dora. Here’s his track record out there:
2023 – 1st
2022 – 3rd
2019 – 17th
2018 – 5th
2017 – 3rd
He’s got the hot hand right now. He’ll be confident and comfortable. Finals Day is a lock for Yago. I wonder if best mate Jack Robbo will be in his path yet again.
DONT FORGET ABOUT THE WILDCARDS
I’ll go ahead and say it – Sammy Pupo is my pick to win this thing. He’s got a runner up (2022), and a QF finish (2023, as a Wildcard) in CT’s out here. He won last year’s Challenger Series event there. He’s already got a 2nd and a 5th on the CS in the first two events. He’s surfing at an incredibly high level; he should be on Tour. And obviously he’ll be back next year, barring anything crazy. He clearly has a great relationship with this wave. So when he wins this event, it’ll just be that much more clear – this dude could be better than Filipe.
Joao Chianca is the second event Wildcard, and he could take down some names as well. He might have won a CS out there had he not ran into a rampaging Medina in the Semi’s (2022). He had a strong showing in his first contest since that insane injury – a 5th place at Snapper. He’s looking to build on that comeback story, and can you imagine that; “Joao Chianca wins in Rio”. The crowd on the beach that day would be a sight to behold.
PAST WINNERS
John John Florence
Yago Dora
Jordy Smith
That’s it. As stated, Medina and Sammy Pupo both won a Challenger Series event out here. One of these 5 listed have a great chance to win again.
WORK TO DO
Ethan Ewing surprised me in making the Final here last year. He’s going to need a result here again this year. While he’s still sitting in 4th on the rankings for the year, he’s got three straight 9th place results. That’s got to be frustrating. Also heading to Fiji after this, he’ll surely want something to secure his position a bit more as that contest could be a big looming question mark for the stylish Australian.
Jack Robinson has never made Finals Day at his home away from home. His wife (and child) are Brazilian, his best friend and coach are Brazilian, he wants to do well here. Should only be a matter of time until he figures it out and breaks through. He’s one of the most headstrong surfers on Tour right now.
Griffin has never made Finals Day out here either. Ever since those supposed Death Threats he was receiving that one year, I feel like he’s a bit skeptical to really give this event a full run. Emotionally, mentally, even physically just not giving it 100%. I think even if he tells you it doesn’t affect him, it truly does. Who is to say what would have, could have happened had he won the event that year? And now it’s just a thing he’ll have to get over, a mental block. He’s probably got to do it this year too, or he will end up on the outside of the Final 5 picture, looking in.
MY PREDICTION
I told you, I’m pretty confident that Sammy Pupo wins this thing. My second pick would be Crosby Colapinto. I think they are very similar surfers, and whichever gets on a roll for this event will win it. Sammy will just have the support, knowledge, comfort and confidence.
A wildcard pick worth looking at would be Ryan Callinan. He made the Semi’s here last year, and he’s surfing really well right now; he’s starting to hit his stride on Tour. It feels like one of those things where a surfer finally realizes and feels like he belongs and can win with the best of them. It is a huge wildcard though because no Australian has won here since Bede Durbidge in 2008.
The last name I will throw out is Cole Houshmand. His keeper results right now are three 17th’s, two 9th’s, and a win. Pipe was his throwaway with a deadlast 33rd. I would really like to see him show us something else to go along with that win – give Crosby a run for Rookie of The Year. Fiji should be a strong suit for him, but if Crosby has a strong result here, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Houshmand.
Exciting stuff. The event should be starting within the next 2 days. I saw the WSL putting out some stuff on Social Media today boasting about how the wait is worth it. I think I will be the judge of that, thank you very much. And if it’s not, just reread the title of this post.
Cheers,
hwilsin
Drew Stanfield