PORTUGAL PREVIEW

Well folks, here we go again. After what was dubbed the best Pipe contest to ever go down, some people loved Sunset as a CT event, and some weren’t sold. Personally, I didn’t mind it. I especially liked to see the women out there charging. I prefer a contest out there over that beachbreak in Brazil. Anywho, at the conclusion of the first two events, in the top 5 we have:

-2 wild cards, one with the gold jersey

-2 prodigies tied for 2nd place

-A 50 year old

With that being said, expect some things to shake up after this event. This will be the first time the Peniche CT event will not run in October. From the warm water and perfect waves in Hawaii, straight into reportedly cold water and sand bottom barrels, here are some things to take note of:

-Italo won the last 2 contests at Supertubos (2019 & 2018).

-JJF was missing from both of those contests. ^

-In the past 5 CT events in Portugal, Brazilians have won 4 (Medina 2017, Filipe 2015 & above).

-Kanoa’s results in Portugal since 2017 – Semi’s, Quarters, Semi’s.

-Jordy has finished runner up three times – 2010, 2014 & 2019. He also has a 5th place and 3rd place result here in ‘13 & ‘16, respectively. 

-Conner Coffin (2016) & Nat Young (2013) both have runner up finishes.

-John John has finished below 9th place only once in Portugal, in 2015 (13th). His other results are: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 5th, and 9th. 

-Medina, who will be missing from this contest, has upped John by one heat in Portugal. His results are as follows: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, and 13th. 

-Fredrico, who gets a lot of attention this time of year due to being ‘home’, has yet to crack the QF’s. 

-Kolohe has proved solid results here – 3rd, 3rd, 5th, 9th, & 9th. Can he get his maiden victory?

-Filipe has a mixed bag of results: a win, two 5th’s, three 13th’s, and a 25th. 

-Caio, coming off back to back semi finals, also reached the semis the last time the contest ran in Peniche.

What does all of this mean? Couldn’t tell you. However, a nice little stat courtesy of the WSL is that Italo has a 75% heat win rate in Portugal, with 18 “excellent” waves, in 24 heats surfed. So there is that. A couple of people need some results as we approach the mid-year chop quickly. Notably; Griffin, Conner, Morgan Ciblic & Owen Wright, all sitting well below the cut line.

I am predicting another wild run for a rookie. Both contests have seen at least one ‘full time’ rook through to the Quarters. I am looking at Callum Robson as a possible darkhorse here. Samuel Pupo is another nice candidate, as his brother has done well here in the past (5th place 2016 & 2017), so he’ll have some of that brotherly juju on his side. Sammy also got a wild card entry here in 2018, so he’s got some familiarity with the wave. If the waves get big, and he can make it through his early heats, keep an eye on Joao.

The big question remains – how can the Old Man fare against the young kids, if the judging is more about the performance than the wave? We should get a clear indication of this early on in the event. For some reason or another, this feels like a real make or break event for a lot of names. A lot of eyes will be on Kolohe & Italo who could both use a good result. Jordy and Filipe are tied just outside the top 5, with JJF and Jack Robbo nipping at their heels. A solid result for any of those 4 will inch them closer to safety from the mid-year axe, as well as boost some confidence heading to the familiar Oz stretch. 

Clean the coffee maker and call the weed man, the forecast looks promising. There have been clips circulating of half the tour getting completely slotted the past week at Supertubos, with more of the same expected. The first contest call is tonight at 11:50pm, California time.

-hwilsin.